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Servette FC v FC Sion

Servette FC

3–0Full time

FC Sion

Super League · SAT 10 OCT · Stade de Geneve

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Servette FC 3–0 FC Sion SERVETTE FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Servette FC win~~41%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.526

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.730

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Servette FC win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Servette FC 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–34
7′Little has changed for our model: Servette FC 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–34
11′11′ and it is 1–0: Houboulang Mendes on the scoresheet for Servette FC. 1–0 · 66–19–14
12′11′ and it is 1–0: Houboulang Mendes on the scoresheet for Servette FC. 1–0 · 66–19–14
16′We said Servette FC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–14
17′We said Servette FC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 2–0 · 86–9–4
19′Servette FC ahead on 18′ through Jarell Simo. 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
20′Servette FC ahead on 18′ through Jarell Simo. 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
22′We said Servette FC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–0 · 87–9–4
31′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Houboulang Mendes · Servette FC
38′We said Servette FC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–2
39′We said Servette FC at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–2
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Mathis Lambourde · Servette FC
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 90% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 90% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 90% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 90% now
45′SECOND HALF Servette FC 2–0 FC Sion
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 90% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 90% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Servette FC win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Rilind Nivokazi · FC Sion
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FC Sion · On: Nias Hefti · Off: Marquinhos Cipriano
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Sion · On: Josias Lukembila · Off: Winsley Boteli Mokango
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Sion · On: Benjamin Kololli · Off: Liam Chipperfield
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Servette FC · On: Quentin Maceiras · Off: Houboulang Mendes
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Servette FC · On: David Douline · Off: Pedrinho
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Servette FC 3–0 FC Sion · Jarell Simo
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Servette FC 3–0 FC Sion · Kingstone Mutandwa
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Quentin Maceiras · Servette FC
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Sion · On: Théo Berdayes · Off: Ylyas Chouaref
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Servette FC · On: Lilian Njoh · Off: Thomas Lopes
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Servette FC · On: Tiemoko Ouattara · Off: Mathis Lambourde
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Servette FC · On: Teo Allix · Off: Jarell Simo
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Teo Allix · Servette FC
FTFULL TIME Servette FC 3–0 FC Sion
FTServette FC 3–0 FC Sion · Servette FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Servette FC win41%

Draw25%

FC Sion win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Stade de Geneve

Referee · Fedayi San

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Servette FC

4-2-3-1

1 E. Gertmonas

17 H. Mendes

4 S. Rouiller

15 M. Burch

18 B. Mazikou

6 Pedro Naressi

20 J. Simo

22 M. Lambourde

36 T. Lopes

21 J. Karlsson

7 K. Mutandwa

Coach · Jocelyn Gourvennec

Substitutes

78 · L. Besson

23 · Q. Maceiras

34 · T. Allix

14 · L. Njoh

28 · D. Douline

35 · A. Vincent

90 · S. Mraz

77 · T. Ouattara

41 · T. Nunez

FC Sion

4-3-3

1 A. Racioppi

14 N. Lavanchy

5 N. Sow

17 J. Kronig

6 Marquinhos Cipriano

21 L. Chipperfield

88 A. Kabacalman

8 Baltazar

7 I. Chouaref

13 W. Boteli

19 F. Surdez

Coach · Didier Tholot

Substitutes

12 · F. Ruberto

55 · L. Villa

38 · R. Kessler

20 · N. Hefti

10 · B. Kololli

33 · R. Nivokazi

9 · J. Lukembila

29 · T. Berdayes

22 · A. Llukes

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Servette FC

4-2-3-1

1 E. Gertmonas

17 H. Mendes

4 S. Rouiller

15 M. Burch

18 B. Mazikou

6 Pedro Naressi

20 J. Simo

22 M. Lambourde

36 T. Lopes

21 J. Karlsson

7 K. Mutandwa

Coach · Jocelyn Gourvennec

Substitutes

78 · L. Besson

23 · Q. Maceiras

34 · T. Allix

14 · L. Njoh

28 · D. Douline

35 · A. Vincent

90 · S. Mraz

77 · T. Ouattara

41 · T. Nunez

FC Sion

4-3-3

1 A. Racioppi

14 N. Lavanchy

5 N. Sow

17 J. Kronig

6 Marquinhos Cipriano

21 L. Chipperfield

88 A. Kabacalman

8 Baltazar

7 I. Chouaref

13 W. Boteli

19 F. Surdez

Coach · Didier Tholot

Substitutes

12 · F. Ruberto

55 · L. Villa

38 · R. Kessler

20 · N. Hefti

10 · B. Kololli

33 · R. Nivokazi

9 · J. Lukembila

29 · T. Berdayes

22 · A. Llukes

Our number · servette fc winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

41% The market31%

Us41%

~~Market~~31%

We make Servette FC a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · servette fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 31% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Servette FC win	41%	31%	+10
Draw	25%	25%	0
FC Sion win	34%	44%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	57%	62%	−5
Both teams to score	60%	65%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	83%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	42%	−7
Servette FC or draw	66%	56%	+10
Servette FC clean sheet	25%	–	–
FC Sion clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.6 6.7 5.0 2.4 1 7.5 11.5 7.8 3.7 2 6.2 8.7 6.1 2.9 3 3.3 4.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Servette FC down, FC Sion across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,108 Super League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 77.8% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 3.36 goals a meeting; 10 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Servette FC at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). FC Sion away: 3.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Servette FC, 1.42 for FC Sion. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.36

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 14

~~Both scored~~9 of 14

~~Last meetings~~SER 0–0 FCS · SER 3–3 FCS · FCS 0–2 SER · FCS 1–1 SER

Form · last six in Super League

SERVETTE FC

DLLWWL1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 2–3

FC SION

LWWWWD1–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 5–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Lugano	9	+20	25
2	BSC Young Boys	9	+13	19
3	FC Sion	9	+9	19
4	FC Basel 1893	9	0	13
5	FC ST. Gallen	9	−3	13
6	FC Luzern	9	−1	12
7	FC Zurich	9	−6	11
8	Servette FC	9	−2	10
9	FC Thun	9	−8	10
10	Grasshoppers	9	−11	8
11	FC Vaduz	9	−3	6
12	Lausanne	9	−8	6