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FC Zurich v FC Thun

FC Zurich

4–2Full time

FC Thun

Super League · SAT 10 OCT · Letzigrund

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

FC Zurich 4–2 FC Thun FC THUN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Thun win~~41%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.624

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.607

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Thun win at 41%.
2′Much as we predicted: FC Thun was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 37–23–41
7′Much as we predicted: FC Thun was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 36–23–40
16′FC Thun find the net on 16′. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–19–64
17′FC Thun ahead on 16′ through Simon Lengen. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–19–65
19′We published FC Thun at 41%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–1 · 16–20–65
20′We published FC Thun at 41%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–1 · 16–20–65
32′Kevin Spadanuda scores for FC Zurich on 30′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–29–37
33′Kevin Spadanuda scores for FC Zurich on 30′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–29–37
36′We said FC Thun at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 2–1 · 63–22–15
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' FC Zurich 2–1 FC Thun · Bledian Krasniqi
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' FC Thun win: 41% at kick-off, 37% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' FC Thun win: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
38′37′ and it is 2–1: Bledian Krasniqi on the scoresheet for FC Zurich. 2–1 · 64–22–14
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' FC Thun win: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' FC Thun win: 41% at kick-off, 37% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' FC Thun win: 41% at kick-off, 14% now
39′37′ and it is 2–1: Bledian Krasniqi on the scoresheet for FC Zurich. 2–1 · 64–22–14
39′🟨 YELLOW · 40' A. Ilic · FC Thun
42′We said FC Thun at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–1 · 65–22–13
45′SECOND HALF FC Zurich 2–1 FC Thun
46′We said FC Thun at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 2–1 · 65–22–12
46′HALF-TIME FC Zurich 2–1 FC Thun
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' FC Thun win: 41% at kick-off, 12% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' FC Zurich win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was FC Thun win 12%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' FC Thun win: 41% at kick-off, 12% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' FC Zurich win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was FC Thun win 12%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' FC Thun win: 41% at kick-off, 12% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' FC Zurich win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was FC Thun win 12%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' FC Thun win: 41% at kick-off, 12% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' FC Zurich win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was FC Thun win 12%)
55′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Simon Lengen · FC Thun
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' FC Thun · On: Noah Christoffersson · Off: Simon Lengen
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' FC Thun · On: Nils·Reichmuth · Off: A. Ilic
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' FC Zurich 3–1 FC Thun · Bledian Krasniqi
63′⚽ GOAL · 64' FC Zurich 3–1 FC Thun · Doron Lichtenstein
65′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Jan Bamert · FC Thun
67′🟥 RED CARD · 67' FC Thun
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Thun · On: Dorian Derbaci · Off: Nico Maier
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Thun · On: Dorian Derbaci · Off: Nico Maier
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' FC Zurich 4–1 FC Thun · Doron Lichtenstein
76′⚽ GOAL · 77' FC Zurich 4–1 FC Thun · Philippe Paulin Keny (assist Doron Lichtenstein)
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FC Zurich · On: Nevio Emanuele Di Giusto · Off: Miguel Reichmuth
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FC Thun · On: Louis Immanuel Passavant · Off: Nassim Zoukit
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Zurich · On: Din Ramić · Off: Philippe Paulin Keny
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Zurich · On: Jill Stiel · Off: Bledian Krasniqi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Zurich · On: Mohamed Bangoura · Off: Kevin Spadanuda
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FC Zurich · On: Jorge Segura · Off: Leandro Schödler
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' FC Zurich 4–2 FC Thun · Philippe Paulin Keny
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' FC Zurich 4–2 FC Thun · Dorian Derbaci
FTFULL TIME FC Zurich 4–2 FC Thun
FTFC Zurich 4–2 FC Thun · FC Thun win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Zurich win36%

Draw23%

FC Thun win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Letzigrund

Referee · Hajrim Qovanaj

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Zurich

4-1-4-1

1 S. Huber

47 D. Lichtenstein

2 L. Kamberi

21 L. Schodler

43 N. Volken

23 V. Berisha

17 K. Spadanuda

38 M. Reichmuth

7 B. Krasniqi

11 U. Emmanuel

19 P. P. Keny

Coach · Marcel Koller

Substitutes

13 · H. Lindner

42 · A. Hack

4 · J. Segura

8 · L. Comenencia

6 · C. Fiorini

18 · M. Bangoura

14 · N. Di Giusto

46 · J. Stiel

49 · D. Ramic

FC Thun

4-4-2

1 N. Steffen

47 F. Fehr

5 N. Burgy

19 J. Bamert

18 T. Strannegard

30 N. Maier

16 J. Roth

13 N. Zoukit

52 A. Ilic

80 S. Lengen

9 F. Dursun

Coach · Luca Privitelli Gian

Substitutes

25 · T. Spycher

54 · L. Passavant

17 · A. Balaruban

37 · L. Dahler

2 · O. Mambwa

21 · D. Derbaci

70 · N. Reichmuth

26 · N. Christoffersson

20 · R. Braschi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Zurich

4-1-4-1

1 S. Huber

47 D. Lichtenstein

2 L. Kamberi

21 L. Schodler

43 N. Volken

23 V. Berisha

17 K. Spadanuda

38 M. Reichmuth

7 B. Krasniqi

11 U. Emmanuel

19 P. P. Keny

Coach · Marcel Koller

Substitutes

13 · H. Lindner

42 · A. Hack

4 · J. Segura

8 · L. Comenencia

6 · C. Fiorini

18 · M. Bangoura

14 · N. Di Giusto

46 · J. Stiel

49 · D. Ramic

FC Thun

4-4-2

1 N. Steffen

47 F. Fehr

5 N. Burgy

19 J. Bamert

18 T. Strannegard

30 N. Maier

16 J. Roth

13 N. Zoukit

52 A. Ilic

80 S. Lengen

9 F. Dursun

Coach · Luca Privitelli Gian

Substitutes

25 · T. Spycher

54 · L. Passavant

17 · A. Balaruban

37 · L. Dahler

2 · O. Mambwa

21 · D. Derbaci

70 · N. Reichmuth

26 · N. Christoffersson

20 · R. Braschi

Our number · fc thun winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make FC Thun a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc thun win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Zurich win	36%	37%	−1
Draw	23%	25%	−2
FC Thun win	41%	38%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	67%	68%	−1
Both teams to score	68%	69%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	85%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	46%	48%	−2
FC Zurich or draw	59%	62%	−2
FC Zurich clean sheet	17%	–	–
FC Thun clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.6 5.2 5.0 3.0 1 4.9 9.7 8.2 4.9 2.2 2 4.4 7.7 6.9 4.1 3 2.5 4.4 3.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Zurich down, FC Thun across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,108 Super League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 77.8% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Zurich at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Thun away: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for FC Zurich, 1.79 for FC Thun. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FCZ 2–1 FCT · FCT 4–2 FCZ · FCZ 0–4 FCT

Form · last six in Super League

FC ZURICH

LWLDWD1–2 · 3–2 · 2–4 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

FC THUN

WDLLLW4–3 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Lugano	9	+20	25
2	BSC Young Boys	9	+13	19
3	FC Sion	9	+9	19
4	FC Basel 1893	9	0	13
5	FC ST. Gallen	9	−3	13
6	FC Luzern	9	−1	12
7	FC Zurich	9	−6	11
8	Servette FC	9	−2	10
9	FC Thun	9	−8	10
10	Grasshoppers	9	−11	8
11	FC Vaduz	9	−3	6
12	Lausanne	9	−8	6