FC Zurich v FC Luzern prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

FC Zurich 2–1 FC Luzern FC ZURICH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Zurich win~~39%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.575

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.598

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Zurich win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Zurich was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–23–38
1′KICK-OFF FC Zurich v FC Luzern
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Bung Meng Freimann · FC Luzern
26′We published FC Zurich at 39%. Our model now makes it 64%. 1–0 · 64–20–16
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' FC Zurich 1–0 FC Luzern
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' FC Zurich win: 39% at kick-off, 64% now
27′Philippe Paulin Keny scores for FC Zurich on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–20–16
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 64–21–15
32′We published FC Zurich at 39%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–21–15
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' FC Zurich 1–1 FC Luzern
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' FC Zurich win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
39′GOAL DISALLOWED · 39' FC Luzern
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' FC Zurich win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
45′HALF-TIME FC Zurich 1–0 FC Luzern
45′SECOND HALF FC Zurich 1–0 FC Luzern
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Miguel Reichmuth · FC Zurich
52′We published FC Zurich at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–2
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' FC Zurich 2–0 FC Luzern
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' FC Zurich win: 39% at kick-off, 90% now
53′52′: Miguel Reichmuth on the scoresheet for FC Zurich, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' FC Luzern · On: Levin Winkler · Off: Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' FC Luzern · On: Nando Toggenburger · Off: Tyron Owusu
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FC Zurich · On: Mohamed Bangoura · Off: Livano Comenencia
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FC Zurich · On: Nevio Emanuele Di Giusto · Off: Kevin Spadanuda
66′We published FC Zurich at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
71′We published FC Zurich at 39%. Our model now makes it 77%. 2–1 · 77–19–4
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' FC Zurich 2–1 FC Luzern
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' FC Zurich win: 39% at kick-off, 77% now
72′FC Luzern pull one back on 71′ through Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb. 2–1. 2–1 · 78–18–4
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Luzern · On: Aurelio Oehlers · Off: Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Luzern · On: Rúben Dantas Fernandes · Off: Mio Zimmermann
75′We published FC Zurich at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
80′We published FC Zurich at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Philippe Paulin Keny · FC Zurich
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' FC Zurich win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
85′FC Luzern have had 20 attempts to 13 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 91–9–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' FC Zurich · On: Valon Berisha · Off: Leandro Schödler
91′FC Luzern have had 26 attempts to 13 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 95–4–0
FTFULL TIME FC Zurich 2–1 FC Luzern
FTFC Zurich 2–1 FC Luzern · FC Zurich win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FC Zurich just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Zurich 39%, draw 23%, FC Luzern 38%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on FC Zurich v FC LuzernBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FC Zurich win39%

Draw23%

FC Luzern win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSwissporarena

Line-ups

FC Zurich

4-1-4-1

FC Luzern

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Zurich

FC Luzern

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Schweizer Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Schweizer Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	FC Zurich	10	−4	14
8	FC Luzern	10	−5	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Zurich

4-1-4-1

1 Silas Huber

47 Doron Lichtenstein

2 L. Kamberi

42 A. Hack

44 S. Walker

21 L. Schodler

17 K. Spadanuda

38 M. Reichmuth

8 L. Comenencia

11 U. Emmanuel

19 P. Keny

Coach · M. Koller

Substitutes

18 · M. Bangoura

23 · V. Berisha

14 · N. Di Giusto

48 · D. Ihendu

13 · H. Lindner

49 · D. Ramić

4 · J. Segura

46 · J. Stiel

43 · N. Volken

FC Luzern

4-4-2

30 K. Letica

20 P. Dorn

13 B. Freimann

46 B. Freimann

14 A. Cigaņiks

10 Lucas Ferreira

80 Mio Zimmermann

24 T. Owusu

11 M. Di Giusto

16 O. tshikomb

19 D. Mikołajewski

Coach · J. Portmann

Substitutes

27 · L. Villiger

15 · N. Toggenburger

1 · S. Simoni

7 · A. Oehlers

21 · L. Lüthi

5 · S. Knežević

9 · A. Grbić

22 · R. Fernandes

29 · Levin Winkler

Our number · fc zurich winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make FC Zurich a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Zurich v FC Luzern~~1.76 – 1.76

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 12~~5 v 8

~~The market · FC Zurich win~~37% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Zurich win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Zurich win	39%	37%	+2
Draw	23%	26%	−3
FC Luzern win	38%	37%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Both teams to score	68%	69%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	85%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	47%	47%	0
FC Zurich or draw	62%	63%	−1
FC Zurich clean sheet	18%	–	–
FC Luzern clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.5 4.9 4.6 2.7 1 5.0 9.5 7.9 4.6 2.1 2 4.6 7.9 6.9 4.0 3 2.7 4.7 4.1 2.4 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Zurich down, FC Luzern across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,114 Super League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Zurich at home: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). FC Luzern away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for FC Zurich, 1.76 for FC Luzern. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCL 1–0 FCZ · FCZ 1–4 FCL · FCZ 3–2 FCL · FCL 1–1 FCZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 29 Aug

FC ZURICH

WLDWDW3–2 · 2–4 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–2

FC LUZERN

DWDLWL1–1 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–4 · 5–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Lugano	10	+24	28
2	BSC Young Boys	10	+15	22
3	FC Sion	10	+6	19
4	FC ST. Gallen	10	−2	16
5	FC Zurich	10	−4	14
6	Servette FC	10	+1	13
7	FC Basel 1893	10	−3	13
8	FC Luzern	10	−5	12
9	FC Thun	10	−10	10
10	FC Vaduz	10	0	9
11	Grasshoppers	10	−13	8
12	Lausanne	10	−9	6