FC Vaduz v FC Basel 1893 prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

FC Vaduz 3–0 FC Basel 1893 FC BASEL 1893 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Basel 1893 win~~43%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.679

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.636

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Basel 1893 win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Basel 1893 was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 34–22–44
1′KICK-OFF FC Vaduz v FC Basel 1893
3′Much as we predicted: FC Basel 1893 was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 34–23–43
24′⚽ GOAL · 26' FC Vaduz 0–0 FC Basel 1893
25′A goal for FC Vaduz on 26′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 33–27–41
26′Marcel Monsberger scores for FC Vaduz on 26′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 59–22–18
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' FC Vaduz 1–0 FC Basel 1893 · Marcel Monsberger
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' FC Basel 1893 win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' FC Vaduz win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was FC Basel 1893 win 18%)
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' FC Basel 1893 win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' FC Basel 1893 win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Vaduz win 33%)
27′We said FC Basel 1893 at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 60–22–18
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' FC Basel 1893 win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' FC Vaduz win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was FC Basel 1893 win 18%)
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' FC Basel 1893 win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' FC Basel 1893 win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Vaduz win 33%)
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' FC Vaduz win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was FC Basel 1893 win 18%)
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' FC Basel 1893 win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' FC Vaduz win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was FC Basel 1893 win 18%)
35′⚽ GOAL · 36' FC Vaduz 1–0 FC Basel 1893 · Marcel Monsberger
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' FC Vaduz 2–0 FC Basel 1893 · Marcel Monsberger
45′SECOND HALF FC Vaduz 2–0 FC Basel 1893
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Denis Simani · FC Vaduz
49′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Juan Cabrera · FC Vaduz
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Kazeem Olaigbe · FC Basel 1893
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Dominik Schwizer · FC Vaduz
54′SUBSTITUTION · 55' FC Basel 1893 · On: Aaron Malouda · Off: Kazeem Olaigbe
67′⚽ GOAL · 68' FC Vaduz 2–0 FC Basel 1893 · Lutfi Dalipi
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' FC Vaduz 3–0 FC Basel 1893 · Lutfi Dalipi
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Vaduz · On: Dejan Djokic · Off: Milos Cocic
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Basel 1893 · On: Ludwig Thorell · Off: Jonas harder
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Basel 1893 · On: giacomo koloto · Off: Žan Celar
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Basel 1893 · On: Keigo Tsunemoto · Off: Moussa Cisse
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Basel 1893 · On: Akpe Victory · Off: Abemly Meto Silu Metinho
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Vaduz · On: Mattia walker · Off: Juan Cabrera
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' FC Vaduz · On: Malik Sawadogo · Off: Lutfi Dalipi
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' FC Vaduz · On: Niklas Lang · Off: Marcel Monsberger
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' FC Vaduz · On: mischa beeli · Off: Dominik Schwizer
FTFULL TIME FC Vaduz 3–0 FC Basel 1893
FTFC Vaduz 3–0 FC Basel 1893 · FC Basel 1893 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC Vaduz win34%

Draw23%

FC Basel 1893 win43%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:30

VenueRheinpark Stadion

RefereeAlessandro Dudic

Line-ups

FC Vaduz

4-3-1-2

FC Basel 1893

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Vaduz

FC Basel 1893

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	FC Basel 1893	9	0	13
11	FC Vaduz	9	−3	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Vaduz

4-3-1-2

25 L. Schaffran

4 N. Hasler

6 D. Simani

5 L. Berisha

7 D. Schwizer

17 J. Stark

20 L. Mack

10 J. Cabrera

28 M. Cocic

9 M. Monsberger

11 L. Dalipi

Coach · Marc Schneider

Substitutes

1 · B. Buchel

27 · N. Lang

14 · M. Beeli

29 · M. Sawadogo

30 · M. Walker

23 · M. Hammerich

19 · D. Djokic

18 · D. Kasper

FC Basel 1893

4-2-3-1

1 J. Omlin

22 C. Michelin

4 B. Omeragic

24 F. Daniliuc

29 M. Cisse

5 Metinho

44 J. Harder

7 P. Otele

10 X. Shaqiri

11 K. Olaigbe

9 Z. Celar

Coach · Slavisa Jokanovic

Substitutes

13 · M. Salvi

27 · K. Ruegg

3 · N. Vouilloz

6 · K. Tsunemoto

55 · A. Victory

8 · L. Thorell

41 · J. Doucoure

37 · G. Koloto

17 · A. Malouda

Our number · fc basel 1893 winPublished 11 Oct 15:30

43% The market40%

Us43%

~~Market~~40%

We make FC Basel 1893 a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc basel 1893 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Vaduz win	34%	36%	−2
Draw	23%	24%	−1
FC Basel 1893 win	43%	40%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	67%	69%	−2
Both teams to score	67%	70%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	86%	0
Over 3.5 goals	46%	50%	−4
FC Vaduz or draw	57%	60%	−3
FC Vaduz clean sheet	16%	–	–
FC Basel 1893 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.6 5.4 5.4 3.3 1 4.7 9.6 8.5 5.3 2.5 2 4.1 7.4 6.8 4.2 3 2.2 4.0 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Vaduz down, FC Basel 1893 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,111 Super League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

FC Vaduz at home: 2.75 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 4). FC Basel 1893 away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for FC Vaduz, 1.86 for FC Basel 1893. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Super League

FC VADUZ

LWLWLL2–4 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

FC BASEL 1893

WDLLWL2–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 4–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Lugano	10	+24	28
2	BSC Young Boys	9	+13	19
3	FC Sion	10	+6	19
4	FC Zurich	10	−4	14
5	Servette FC	10	+1	13
6	FC Basel 1893	9	0	13
7	FC ST. Gallen	9	−3	13
8	FC Luzern	10	−5	12
9	FC Thun	10	−10	10
10	Grasshoppers	9	−11	8
11	FC Vaduz	9	−3	6
12	Lausanne	9	−8	6