FC Thun v FC Lugano prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC ThunDrawFC Lugano

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Lugano 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Lugano are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Thun 33%, draw 23%, FC Lugano 44%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on FC Thun v FC LuganoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

FC Thun win33%

Draw23%

FC Lugano win44%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCornaredo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Thun

FC Lugano

3Days since last match3

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc lugano winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market49%

Us44%

~~Market~~49%

We make FC Lugano a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Thun v FC Lugano~~1.57 – 1.82

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 2 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 28~~9 v 1

~~The market · FC Lugano win~~49% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Lugano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Thun win	33%	27%	+6
Draw	23%	23%	0
FC Lugano win	44%	49%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	65%	68%	−3
Both teams to score	66%	67%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	85%	0
Over 3.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
FC Thun or draw	56%	51%	+5
FC Thun clean sheet	17%	–	–
FC Lugano clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.9 5.9 5.6 3.4 1 5.0 9.9 8.6 5.2 2.4 2 4.2 7.4 6.7 4.0 3 2.2 3.9 3.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Thun down, FC Lugano across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,117 Super League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Thun at home: 0.83 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). FC Lugano away: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for FC Thun, 1.82 for FC Lugano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~FCT 0–1 FCL · FCL 1–0 FCT · FCT 0–1 FCL · FCL 1–2 FCT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 2 Sept

FC THUN

DLLLWL0–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 2–4

FC LUGANO

WWDWWW1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 4–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Lugano	10	+24	28
2	BSC Young Boys	10	+15	22
3	FC Sion	10	+6	19
4	FC ST. Gallen	10	−2	16
5	FC Zurich	10	−4	14
6	Servette FC	10	+1	13
7	FC Basel 1893	10	−3	13
8	FC Luzern	10	−5	12
9	FC Thun	10	−10	10
10	FC Vaduz	10	0	9
11	Grasshoppers	10	−13	8
12	Lausanne	10	−9	6