FC ST. Gallen v Lausanne prediction · Super League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

FC ST. Gallen 1–0 Lausanne FC ST. GALLEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC ST. Gallen win~~56%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.296

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.163

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC ST. Gallen win at 56%.
1′KICK-OFF FC ST. Gallen v Lausanne
2′Little has changed for our model: FC ST. Gallen 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–22–22
4′Little has changed for our model: FC ST. Gallen 56% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–22
12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Brandon Soppy · Lausanne
16′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Mihailo Stevanovic · FC ST. Gallen
28′We said FC ST. Gallen at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' FC ST. Gallen 1–0 Lausanne
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' FC ST. Gallen win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' FC ST. Gallen win: 56% at kick-off, 50% now
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' FC ST. Gallen 1–0 Lausanne · Lukas Görtler
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' FC ST. Gallen win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC ST. Gallen · On: Carlo Boukhalfa · Off: Mihailo Stevanovic
45′SECOND HALF FC ST. Gallen 1–0 Lausanne
46′HALF-TIME FC ST. Gallen 1–0 Lausanne
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Mostafa Heydari · FC ST. Gallen
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' FC ST. Gallen 2–0 Lausanne · Lukas Görtler
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Lausanne · On: Olivier Custodio · Off: Brandon Soppy
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Lausanne · On: Omar Janneh · Off: Alban Ajdini
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lausanne · On: Papa Souleymane N'Diaye · Off: Alexis Blin
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FC ST. Gallen · On: Joel Ruiz · Off: Mostafa Heydari
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Lausanne · On: Enzo Molebe · Off: Levy Nene
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC ST. Gallen · On: Nevio Scherrer · Off: Aliou Balde
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC ST. Gallen · On: Behar·Neziri · Off: Lukas Görtler
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Papa Souleymane N'Diaye · Lausanne
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Lausanne · On: Ibrahim Bah Mendes · Off: Dircssi Ngonzo
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Olivier Custodio · Lausanne
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC ST. Gallen · On: Betim Fazliji · Off: Lukas Daschner
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Christian Witzig · FC ST. Gallen
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Florent Mollet · Lausanne
FTFULL TIME FC ST. Gallen 1–0 Lausanne
FTFC ST. Gallen 1–0 Lausanne · FC ST. Gallen win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC ST. Gallen win56%

Draw23%

Lausanne win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:30

VenueKybunpark

RefereeHuseyin Sanli

Line-ups

FC ST. Gallen

3-1-4-2

Lausanne

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC ST. Gallen

Lausanne

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	FC ST. Gallen	9	−3	13
12	Lausanne	9	−8	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC ST. Gallen

3-1-4-2

1 L. Ati Zigi

26 T. Gaal

4 J. Stanic

68 M. Heydari

64 M. Stevanovic

7 C. Witzig

16 L. Gortler

10 L. Daschner

28 H. Vandermersch

9 A. Hunziker

14 A. Balde

Coach · Enrico Maassen

Substitutes

25 · L. Watkowiak

74 · J. Ruiz

11 · C. Boukhalfa

23 · B. Fazliji

6 · B. Neziri

20 · L. Frokaj

47 · E. Owusu

70 · N. Scherrer

27 · K. Csoboth

Lausanne

3-4-3

90 M. Mastil

4 E. Youte Kinkoue

31 N. Cozza

5 D. Ngonzo

2 B. Soppy

29 A. Blin

91 F. Mollet

18 M. Poaty

11 N. Butler-Oyedeji

7 A. Ajdini

77 L. Nene

Coach · Luka Elsner

Substitutes

1 · T. Castella

10 · O. Custodio

47 · S. N'Diaye

78 · O. Janneh

59 · O. Renovales

51 · I. Bah Mendes

17 · S. Traore

9 · E. Molebe

45 · G. Moreno Vinas

Our number · fc st. gallen winPublished 11 Oct 15:30

56% The market67%

Us56%

~~Market~~67%

We make FC ST. Gallen a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc st. gallen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 56% now. The market has gone from 61% to 67% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC ST. Gallen win	56%	67%	−12
Draw	23%	18%	+4
Lausanne win	22%	15%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	60%	69%	−9
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	86%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	38%	49%	−11
FC ST. Gallen or draw	78%	85%	−7
FC ST. Gallen clean sheet	32%	–	–
Lausanne clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.1 4.8 3.0 1 8.4 10.4 5.7 2.2 2 8.5 9.6 5.5 2.1 3 5.6 6.3 3.6 4 2.8 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC ST. Gallen down, Lausanne across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,111 Super League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 3.38 goals a meeting; 8 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lausanne away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for FC ST. Gallen, 1.15 for Lausanne. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.38

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 13

~~Both scored~~8 of 13

~~Last meetings~~LAU 1–1 FCS · FCS 1–0 LAU · LAU 1–2 FCS · FCS 0–2 LAU

Form · last six in Super League

FC ST. GALLEN

LLWLLW3–4 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 3–1

LAUSANNE

LLDLLL0–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Lugano	10	+24	28
2	BSC Young Boys	9	+13	19
3	FC Sion	10	+6	19
4	FC Zurich	10	−4	14
5	Servette FC	10	+1	13
6	FC Basel 1893	9	0	13
7	FC ST. Gallen	9	−3	13
8	FC Luzern	10	−5	12
9	FC Thun	10	−10	10
10	Grasshoppers	9	−11	8
11	FC Vaduz	9	−3	6
12	Lausanne	9	−8	6