FC Sion v Lausanne prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC SionDrawLausanne

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Sion 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Sion are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Sion 56%, draw 23%, Lausanne 21%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on FC Sion v LausanneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

FC Sion win56%

Draw23%

Lausanne win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade de la Tuiliere

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Sion

Lausanne

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Schweizer Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · Schweizer Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Sion	10	+6	19
12	Lausanne	10	−9	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc sion winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

56% The market63%

Us56%

~~Market~~63%

We make FC Sion a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Sion v Lausanne~~1.86 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 19 v 6~~3 v 12

~~The market · FC Sion win~~63% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Sion win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Sion win	56%	63%	−7
Draw	23%	20%	+3
Lausanne win	21%	17%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	56%	66%	−10
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	79%	84%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	33%	46%	−13
FC Sion or draw	79%	83%	−4
FC Sion clean sheet	35%	–	–
Lausanne clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 6.0 5.4 3.1 1 9.7 10.9 5.5 2 9.3 9.7 5.1 3 5.8 6.0 3.2 4 2.8 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Sion down, Lausanne across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,117 Super League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Sion at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Lausanne away: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for FC Sion, 1.05 for Lausanne. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCS 3–0 LAU · LAU 2–2 FCS · FCS 0–0 LAU · LAU 2–0 FCS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 29 Aug

FC SION

WWWWDL2–1 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 5–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

LAUSANNE

LDLLLL2–3 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Lugano	10	+24	28
2	BSC Young Boys	11	+17	25
3	FC Sion	10	+6	19
4	FC Zurich	11	−3	17
5	Servette FC	11	+2	16
6	FC ST. Gallen	11	−4	16
7	FC Basel 1893	10	−3	13
8	FC Luzern	11	−6	12
9	FC Thun	10	−10	10
10	FC Vaduz	11	−1	9
11	Grasshoppers	10	−13	8
12	Lausanne	10	−9	6