FC Luzern v FC Sion prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC LuzernDrawFC Sion

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Luzern 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FC Luzern just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Luzern 40%, draw 23%, FC Sion 37%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on FC Luzern v FC SionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

FC Luzern win40%

Draw23%

FC Sion win37%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueThermoplan Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Luzern

FC Sion

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · the Swiss Super League

Last match: 17 Oct · Schweizer Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Sion	10	+6	19
8	FC Luzern	11	−6	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc luzern winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make FC Luzern a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Luzern v FC Sion~~1.71 – 1.64

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 19~~8 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Luzern win	40%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
FC Sion win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
FC Luzern or draw	63%	–	–
FC Luzern clean sheet	20%	–	–
FC Sion clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.1 5.5 4.8 2.6 1 5.7 10.2 7.9 4.3 2 5.2 8.3 6.7 3.7 3 2.9 4.7 3.8 2.1 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Luzern down, FC Sion across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,117 Super League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Luzern at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). FC Sion away: 2.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for FC Luzern, 1.64 for FC Sion. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCS 3–0 FCL · FCS 0–0 FCL · FCS 1–1 FCL · FCL 3–3 FCS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 2 Sept

FC LUZERN

WDLWLL2–1 · 3–3 · 2–4 · 5–1 · 0–4 · 1–2

FC SION

WWWWDL2–1 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 5–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Lugano	10	+24	28
2	BSC Young Boys	11	+17	25
3	FC Sion	10	+6	19
4	FC Zurich	11	−3	17
5	Servette FC	11	+2	16
6	FC ST. Gallen	11	−4	16
7	FC Basel 1893	10	−3	13
8	FC Luzern	11	−6	12
9	FC Thun	10	−10	10
10	FC Vaduz	11	−1	9
11	Grasshoppers	10	−13	8
12	Lausanne	10	−9	6