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FC Lugano v FC Luzern

FC Lugano

4–0Full time

FC Luzern

Super League · SAT 10 OCT · Cornaredo

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

FC Lugano 4–0 FC Luzern FC LUGANO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Lugano win~~56%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.291

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.299

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Lugano win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Lugano 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–21–23
2′KICK-OFF FC Lugano v FC Luzern
4′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Behruzjon Karimov · FC Lugano
6′Little has changed for our model: FC Lugano 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–22–23
11′We said FC Lugano at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–9
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' FC Lugano 1–0 FC Luzern
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' FC Lugano win: 56% at kick-off, 77% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' FC Lugano win: 56% at kick-off, 55% now
12′Daniel Dos Santos Correia scores for FC Lugano on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' FC Lugano win: 56% at kick-off, 77% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' FC Lugano win: 56% at kick-off, 55% now
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' FC Lugano 1–0 FC Luzern · Daniel Dos Santos Correia
14′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Daniel Dos Santos Correia · FC Lugano
15′Daniel Dos Santos Correia scores for FC Lugano on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
16′We said FC Lugano at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–8
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 77–15–7
32′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
34′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Renato Steffen · FC Lugano
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Stefan Knezevic · FC Luzern
45′HALF-TIME FC Lugano 1–0 FC Luzern
45′SECOND HALF FC Lugano 1–0 FC Luzern
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Lugano · On: Martim Marques · Off: Lars Lukas Mai
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Luzern · On: Pius Dorn · Off: Bung Hua Freimann
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' FC Lugano win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' FC Lugano win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' FC Lugano win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' FC Lugano win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' FC Lugano win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' FC Lugano · On: Dereck Moncada · Off: Renato Steffen
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' FC Lugano · On: Beckham Castro · Off: Albian Ajeti
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' FC Lugano 2–0 FC Luzern · Daniel Dos Santos Correia
60′⚽ GOAL · 61' FC Lugano 2–0 FC Luzern · Beckham Castro
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Leonardo Bertone · FC Luzern
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Luzern · On: Nando Toggenburger · Off: Tyron Owusu
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Luzern · On: Lars Villiger · Off: Daniel Mikołajewski
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' FC Lugano 3–0 FC Luzern · Rúben Dantas Fernandes
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' FC Lugano 3–0 FC Luzern · Behruzjon Karimov
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Lugano · On: Damian Kelvin · Off: Behruzjon Karimov
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' FC Lugano 3–0 FC Luzern · Rúben Dantas Fernandes
77′⚽ GOAL · 78' FC Lugano 3–0 FC Luzern · Daniel Dos Santos Correia
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Luzern · On: Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira · Off: Oscar Kabwit Tshikomb
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Lugano · On: Ahmed Kendouci · Off: Daniel Dos Santos Correia
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Luzern · On: Levin Winkler · Off: Mio Zimmermann
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' FC Lugano 4–0 FC Luzern · Daniel Dos Santos Correia
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' FC Lugano 4–0 FC Luzern · Dereck Moncada
FTFULL TIME FC Lugano 4–0 FC Luzern
FTFC Lugano 4–0 FC Luzern · FC Lugano win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Lugano win56%

Draw21%

FC Luzern win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Cornaredo

Referee · Anojen Kanagasingam

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Lugano

3-5-2

16 D. von Ballmoos

6 A. Papadopoulos

17 L. Mai

3 H. Delcroix

2 B. Karimov

21 Y. Cimignani

8 A. Grgic

27 D. Dos Santos

46 M. Zanotti

11 R. Steffen

9 A. Ajeti

Coach · Mattia Croci-Torti

Substitutes

28 · F. Gebhardt

7 · E. Alioski

4 · D. Kelvin

18 · J. Bichsel

26 · M. Marques

14 · A. Kendouci

91 · K. Behrens

22 · B. D. Castro Espinosa

30 · D. Moncada

FC Luzern

4-2-2-2

30 K. Letica

13 B. H. Freimann

5 S. Knezevic

46 B. Freimann

22 R. Dantas Fernandes

80 M. Zimmermann

6 L. Bertone

24 T. Owusu

11 M. Di Giusto

16 O. Kabwit

19 D. Mikolajewski

Coach · Jorg Portmann

Substitutes

1 · S. Simoni

20 · P. Dorn

21 · L. Luthi

29 · L. Winkler

10 · L. Silva

9 · A. Grbic

7 · A. Oehlers

15 · N. Toggenburger

27 · L. Villiger

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Lugano

3-5-2

16 D. von Ballmoos

6 A. Papadopoulos

17 L. Mai

3 H. Delcroix

2 B. Karimov

21 Y. Cimignani

8 A. Grgic

27 D. Dos Santos

46 M. Zanotti

11 R. Steffen

9 A. Ajeti

Coach · Mattia Croci-Torti

Substitutes

28 · F. Gebhardt

7 · E. Alioski

4 · D. Kelvin

18 · J. Bichsel

26 · M. Marques

14 · A. Kendouci

91 · K. Behrens

22 · B. D. Castro Espinosa

30 · D. Moncada

FC Luzern

4-2-2-2

30 K. Letica

13 B. H. Freimann

5 S. Knezevic

46 B. Freimann

22 R. Dantas Fernandes

80 M. Zimmermann

6 L. Bertone

24 T. Owusu

11 M. Di Giusto

16 O. Kabwit

19 D. Mikolajewski

Coach · Jorg Portmann

Substitutes

1 · S. Simoni

20 · P. Dorn

21 · L. Luthi

29 · L. Winkler

10 · L. Silva

9 · A. Grbic

7 · A. Oehlers

15 · N. Toggenburger

27 · L. Villiger

Our number · fc lugano winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

56% The market55%

Us56%

~~Market~~55%

We make FC Lugano a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc lugano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Lugano win	56%	55%	+1
Draw	21%	22%	−1
FC Luzern win	23%	22%	0
Over 2.5 goals	66%	69%	−3
Both teams to score	64%	66%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	86%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	49%	−5
FC Lugano or draw	77%	78%	0
FC Lugano clean sheet	28%	–	–
FC Luzern clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.8 4.0 2.8 1 6.7 9.3 5.8 2.5 2 7.4 9.3 6.0 2.6 3 5.2 6.6 4.2 4 2.8 3.6 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Lugano down, FC Luzern across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,108 Super League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 77.8% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

18 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 12 of 18 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Lugano at home: 3.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Luzern away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.13 goals for FC Lugano, 1.29 for FC Luzern. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

18 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~12 of 18

~~Both scored~~13 of 18

~~Last meetings~~FCL 1–3 FCL · FCL 2–5 FCL · FCL 2–0 FCL · FCL 0–2 FCL

Form · last six in Super League

FC LUGANO

WWWDWW2–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 4–0

FC LUZERN

WDWDLW1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–4 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Lugano	9	+20	25
2	BSC Young Boys	9	+13	19
3	FC Sion	9	+9	19
4	FC Basel 1893	9	0	13
5	FC ST. Gallen	9	−3	13
6	FC Luzern	9	−1	12
7	FC Zurich	9	−6	11
8	Servette FC	9	−2	10
9	FC Thun	9	−8	10
10	Grasshoppers	9	−11	8
11	FC Vaduz	9	−3	6
12	Lausanne	9	−8	6