FC Basel 1893 v Grasshoppers prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC Basel 1893DrawGrasshoppers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Basel 1893 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Basel 1893 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Basel 1893 59%, draw 21%, Grasshoppers 19%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on FC Basel 1893 v GrasshoppersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

FC Basel 1893 win59%

Draw21%

Grasshoppers win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueLetzigrund

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Basel 1893

Grasshoppers

9Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Schweizer Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · Schweizer Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	FC Basel 1893	10	−3	13
11	Grasshoppers	10	−13	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc basel 1893 winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

59% The market58%

Us59%

~~Market~~58%

We make FC Basel 1893 a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Basel 1893 v Grasshoppers~~2.10 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~7 v 11

~~The market · FC Basel 1893 win~~58% · ours 59%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Basel 1893 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Basel 1893 win	59%	58%	+1
Draw	21%	21%	0
Grasshoppers win	19%	22%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	62%	69%	−7
Both teams to score	59%	66%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	83%	86%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	50%	−10
FC Basel 1893 or draw	81%	78%	+3
FC Basel 1893 clean sheet	33%	–	–
Grasshoppers clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.6 4.2 2.6 1 8.1 9.7 5.2 2 8.8 9.6 5.4 2.0 3 6.1 6.7 3.7 4 3.3 3.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Basel 1893 down, Grasshoppers across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,114 Super League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Grasshoppers away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for FC Basel 1893, 1.12 for Grasshoppers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCB 1–0 GRA · GRA 1–1 FCB · FCB 2–1 GRA · FCB 2–1 GRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 29 Aug

FC BASEL 1893

DLLWLL3–3 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 4–2 · 1–3 · 0–3

GRASSHOPPERS

WDWLLL2–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–5 · 1–5 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Lugano	10	+24	28
2	BSC Young Boys	10	+15	22
3	FC Sion	10	+6	19
4	FC ST. Gallen	10	−2	16
5	FC Zurich	10	−4	14
6	Servette FC	10	+1	13
7	FC Basel 1893	10	−3	13
8	FC Luzern	10	−5	12
9	FC Thun	10	−10	10
10	FC Vaduz	10	0	9
11	Grasshoppers	10	−13	8
12	Lausanne	10	−9	6