BSC Young Boys v FC ST. Gallen prediction · Super League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BSC Young Boys are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BSC Young Boys 53%, draw 21%, FC ST. Gallen 26%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on BSC Young Boys v FC ST. GallenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

BSC Young Boys win53%

Draw21%

FC ST. Gallen win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueKybunpark

Line-ups

BSC Young Boys

4-4-1-1

FC ST. Gallen

3-1-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BSC Young Boys

FC ST. Gallen

6Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Schweizer Cup

Last match: 16 Oct · Schweizer Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	BSC Young Boys	10	+15	22
4	FC ST. Gallen	10	−2	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

BSC Young Boys

4-4-1-1

1 M. Keller

22 I. Schmidt

4 M. Jenz

15 C. Zesiger

33 S. Bukinac

16 C. Fassnacht

8 A. Gigović

6 E. Fernandes

12 Bahereba Guirassy

10 A. Sanches

99 S. Essende

Coach · G. Seoane

Substitutes

31 · F. Conte

34 · E. Etoski

17 · S. Janko

30 · S. Lauper

18 · J. Mall

13 · D. Pech

9 · K. Sène

7 · A. Virginius

5 · G. Wüthrich

FC ST. Gallen

3-1-4-2

1 L. Zigi

26 T. Gaal

4 J. Stanić

68 M. Heydari

10 L. Daschner

28 H. Vandermersch

16 L. Görtler

11 C. Boukhalfa

64 M. Stevanovic

9 A. Hunziker

14 A. Balde

Coach · E. Maaßen

Substitutes

70 · N. Scherrer

74 · J. Ruiz

36 · C. Okoroji

63 · C. Konietzke

3 · C. Kleine-Bekel

20 · L. Frokaj

23 · B. Fazliji

27 · K. Csoboth

25 · L. Watkowiak

Our number · bsc young boys winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

53% The market53%

Us53%

~~Market~~53%

We make BSC Young Boys a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BSC Young Boys v FC ST. Gallen~~2.25 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in Super League this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 22 v 16~~2 v 4

~~The market · BSC Young Boys win~~53% · ours 53%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BSC Young Boys win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BSC Young Boys win	53%	53%	0
Draw	21%	22%	−1
FC ST. Gallen win	26%	26%	0
Over 2.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Both teams to score	70%	72%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	89%	88%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	52%	56%	−4
BSC Young Boys or draw	74%	74%	0
BSC Young Boys clean sheet	22%	–	–
FC ST. Gallen clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.8 3.4 2.8 1 5.0 8.2 6.0 3.1 2 5.8 8.7 6.6 3.3 3 4.3 6.4 4.9 2.5 4 2.4 3.6 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BSC Young Boys down, FC ST. Gallen across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,114 Super League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BSC Young Boys at home: 3.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). FC ST. Gallen away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.25 goals for BSC Young Boys, 1.52 for FC ST. Gallen. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BSC 1–2 FCS · FCS 2–1 BSC · FCS 1–4 BSC · BSC 1–2 FCS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 29 Aug

BSC YOUNG BOYS

DWDDWW3–3 · 4–2 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–0

FC ST. GALLEN

LWLLWW0–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Lugano	10	+24	28
2	BSC Young Boys	10	+15	22
3	FC Sion	10	+6	19
4	FC ST. Gallen	10	−2	16
5	FC Zurich	10	−4	14
6	Servette FC	10	+1	13
7	FC Basel 1893	10	−3	13
8	FC Luzern	10	−5	12
9	FC Thun	10	−10	10
10	FC Vaduz	10	0	9
11	Grasshoppers	10	−13	8
12	Lausanne	10	−9	6