Stade Nyonnais v FC Basel 1893 prediction · Schweizer Cup

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:01

Stade Nyonnais 0–3 FC Basel 1893 FC BASEL 1893 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Basel 1893 win~~76%

~~The market said~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.088

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.051

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Basel 1893 win at 76%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Basel 1893 76% before kick-off, 76% now. 0–0 · 9–15–76
1′KICK-OFF Stade Nyonnais v FC Basel 1893
5′We said FC Basel 1893 at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 0–1 · 2–7–91
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Stade Nyonnais 0–1 FC Basel 1893
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' FC Basel 1893 win: 76% at kick-off, 91% now
7′FC Basel 1893 score on 6′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–7–91
16′We said FC Basel 1893 at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Stade Nyonnais 0–2 FC Basel 1893
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' FC Basel 1893 win: 76% at kick-off, 98% now
17′FC Basel 1893 find the net on 17′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
44′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
45′SECOND HALF Stade Nyonnais 0–2 FC Basel 1893
47′HALF-TIME Stade Nyonnais 0–2 FC Basel 1893
47′🟨 YELLOW · 13' M. Cisse · FC Basel 1893
47′🟨 YELLOW · 19' E. Akichi · Stade Nyonnais
47′🟨 YELLOW · 36' G. Koloto · FC Basel 1893
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' C. Michelin · FC Basel 1893
75′We said FC Basel 1893 at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Stade Nyonnais 0–3 FC Basel 1893
87′A goal for FC Basel 1893 on 87′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
90′A. Malouda scores for FC Basel 1893 on 86′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
90′0–3 at the end. Our 76% on FC Basel 1893 comes in. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Stade Nyonnais 0–3 FC Basel 1893
FTStade Nyonnais 0–3 FC Basel 1893 · FC Basel 1893 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Basel 1893 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stade Nyonnais 9%, draw 15%, FC Basel 1893 76%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Stade Nyonnais v FC Basel 1893Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Stade Nyonnais win9%

Draw15%

FC Basel 1893 win76%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:15

RoundRound of 32

VenueColovray Sports Centre

Line-ups

Stade Nyonnais

FC Basel 1893

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stade Nyonnais

FC Basel 1893

7Days since last match5

Last match: 9 Oct · the Swiss Challenge League

Last match: 11 Oct · the Swiss Super League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stade Nyonnais

Formation not confirmed

40 M. Aubert

2 R. Boulac

23 K. Thermoncy

4 S. Fankhauser

66 R. Philippin

42 E. Akichi

8 L. Ribeiro

24 C. Betoubam

70 R. Londja

27 S. Edougue

9 M. Miguel

Coach · Aurelien Mioch

Substitutes

1 · M. Mazzeo

91 · M. Regillo

7 · F. Lentini

11 · F. Hysenaj

3 · E. Gashi

5 · J. Mandaka

6 · F. Ahuissou

21 · G. Figueiredo

15 · N. Grognuz

FC Basel 1893

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Omlin

22 C. Michelin

55 A. Victory

24 F. Daniliuc

29 M. Cisse

7 P. Otele

4 B. Omeragic

5 Metinho

11 K. Olaigbe

37 G. Koloto

9 Z. Celar

Coach · Slavisa Jokanovic

Substitutes

13 · M. Salvi

27 · K. Ruegg

6 · K. Tsunemoto

25 · C. Louis

3 · N. Vouilloz

8 · L. Thorell

44 · J. Harder

10 · X. Shaqiri

17 · A. Malouda

Our number · fc basel 1893 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

76% The market82%

Us76%

~~Market~~82%

We make FC Basel 1893 a 76% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stade Nyonnais v FC Basel 1893~~0.77 – 2.57

~~Form · Schweizer Cup this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0

~~The market · FC Basel 1893 win~~82% · ours 76%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Basel 1893 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 78%, 76% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 82% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stade Nyonnais win	9%	7%	+2
Draw	15%	12%	+3
FC Basel 1893 win	76%	82%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	65%	72%	−7
Both teams to score	50%	48%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	87%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	43%	52%	−9
Stade Nyonnais or draw	24%	18%	+6
Stade Nyonnais clean sheet	8%	–	–
FC Basel 1893 clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.7%

0123450 3.8 8.9 11.7 10.1 6.5 3.31 2.5 7.2 9.0 7.7 5.0 2.52 2.7 3.4 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stade Nyonnais down, FC Basel 1893 across0–5 goals a side shown (95.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 408,379 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 16 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Stade Nyonnais play in the Swiss Challenge League, FC Basel 1893 in the Swiss Super League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Stade Nyonnais are at home.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

0.77 goals for Stade Nyonnais, 2.57 for FC Basel 1893. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~STA 0–1 FCB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Schweizer Cup this season · since 15 Aug

STADE NYONNAIS

W3–1

FC BASEL 1893

W6–1

Stade Nyonnais v FC Basel 1893

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Stade Nyonnais

FC Basel 1893

Rest & schedule

Stade Nyonnais

FC Basel 1893

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Stade Nyonnais

FC Basel 1893

Match statistics

Line-ups

Stade Nyonnais

FC Basel 1893

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Schweizer Cup this season · since 15 Aug