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Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Étoile Carouge
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Étoile CarougeSchweizer Cup · FRI 16 OCT · Stade Olympique de la Pontaise
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win at 53%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 53% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
- 1′KICK-OFF Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Étoile Carouge
- 11′Stade Lausanne-Ouchy score on 11′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
- 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1–0 Étoile Carouge
- 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
- 12′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
- 14′Stade Lausanne-Ouchy find the net on 13′. 1–0 · 78–15–7
- 14′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
- 14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2–0 Étoile Carouge
- 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
- 33′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 34′A goal for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy on 34′. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 35′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
- 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile Carouge
- 45′HALF-TIME Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile Carouge
- 46′SECOND HALF Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile Carouge
- 51′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 90′3–0 at the end. Our 53% on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile Carouge
- FTStade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile Carouge · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassStade Lausanne-Ouchy are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 53%, draw 27%, Étoile Carouge 21%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win53%
Étoile Carouge win21%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00
RoundRound of 32
VenueStade Olympique de la Pontaise
Match timeline
All events
Stade Lausanne-OuchyMIN
Étoile CarougeEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Étoile Carouge
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Étoile Carouge
Last match: 9 Oct · the Swiss Challenge League
Last match: 9 Oct · the Swiss Challenge League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Formation not confirmed
21 K. Martin
4 D. Moussadek
5 L. Hajrulahu
22 T. Barbet
28 I. Kaloga
8 N. Lusuena
25 J. Nkama
7 T. Bouchlarhem
30 R. Dantas Fernandes
10 R. Freitas
11 M. Sartoretti
Coach · Dalibor Stevanovic
Substitutes
1 · D. Da Silva
44 · H. Lukembila
2 · J. Carrasco
3 · B. Conus
19 · C. Sow
77 · V. Tritten
57 · N. Emeran
80 · J. A. Tur
20 · J. Dula
Étoile Carouge
Formation not confirmed
1 M. Diallo
25 V. Felder
32 R. Kadima
22 G. Zrankeon
99 M. Tsoungui
26 S. Bossiwa
6 M. El Jaouhari
8 Ricardo Alves
76 Itaitinga
59 O. Renovales
17 O. Sene
Coach · Pedro Nogueira
Substitutes
23 · L. Huwiler
2 · D. Neves
4 · I. Strohbach
24 · M. Dubosson
21 · M. Holcbecher
88 · L. Essiena
77 · T. Escorza
7 · O. Correia
3 · F. Hoxha
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Formation not confirmed
21 K. Martin
4 D. Moussadek
5 L. Hajrulahu
22 T. Barbet
28 I. Kaloga
8 N. Lusuena
25 J. Nkama
7 T. Bouchlarhem
30 R. Dantas Fernandes
10 R. Freitas
11 M. Sartoretti
Coach · Dalibor Stevanovic
Substitutes
1 · D. Da Silva
44 · H. Lukembila
2 · J. Carrasco
3 · B. Conus
19 · C. Sow
77 · V. Tritten
57 · N. Emeran
80 · J. A. Tur
20 · J. Dula
Étoile Carouge
Formation not confirmed
1 M. Diallo
25 V. Felder
32 R. Kadima
22 G. Zrankeon
99 M. Tsoungui
26 S. Bossiwa
6 M. El Jaouhari
8 Ricardo Alves
76 Itaitinga
59 O. Renovales
17 O. Sene
Coach · Pedro Nogueira
Substitutes
23 · L. Huwiler
2 · D. Neves
4 · I. Strohbach
24 · M. Dubosson
21 · M. Holcbecher
88 · L. Essiena
77 · T. Escorza
7 · O. Correia
3 · F. Hoxha
We make Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win | 53% | 60% | −7 |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | +5 |
| Étoile Carouge win | 21% | 18% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% | −10 |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 57% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 81% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 39% | −11 |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw | 79% | 82% | −3 |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy clean sheet | 37% | – | – |
| Étoile Carouge clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Schweizer Cup this season · since 15 Aug
STADE LAUSANNE-OUCHY
ÉTOILE CAROUGE