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Model 1.1

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Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Étoile Carouge

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
3–0Full time
Étoile Carouge

Schweizer Cup · FRI 16 OCT · Stade Olympique de la Pontaise

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile Carouge STADE LAUSANNE-OUCHY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win53%
The market said60%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.339
The market’s Brier score0.241

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win at 53%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 53% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Étoile Carouge
  4. 11′Stade Lausanne-Ouchy score on 11′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
  5. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1–0 Étoile Carouge
  6. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
  7. 12′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
  8. 14′Stade Lausanne-Ouchy find the net on 13′. 1–0 · 78–15–7
  9. 14′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
  10. 14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2–0 Étoile Carouge
  11. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
  12. 33′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  13. 34′A goal for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy on 34′. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  14. 35′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  15. 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile Carouge
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile Carouge
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile Carouge
  18. 51′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 90′3–0 at the end. Our 53% on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  20. FTFULL TIME Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile Carouge
  21. FTStade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile Carouge · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 53%, draw 27%, Étoile Carouge 21%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Étoile CarougeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win53%
Draw27%
Étoile Carouge win21%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundRound of 32

VenueStade Olympique de la Pontaise

Line-ups

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Étoile Carouge

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Étoile Carouge

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · the Swiss Challenge League

Last match: 9 Oct · the Swiss Challenge League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Formation not confirmed

21 K. Martin

4 D. Moussadek

5 L. Hajrulahu

22 T. Barbet

28 I. Kaloga

8 N. Lusuena

25 J. Nkama

7 T. Bouchlarhem

30 R. Dantas Fernandes

10 R. Freitas

11 M. Sartoretti

Coach · Dalibor Stevanovic

Substitutes

1 · D. Da Silva

44 · H. Lukembila

2 · J. Carrasco

3 · B. Conus

19 · C. Sow

77 · V. Tritten

57 · N. Emeran

80 · J. A. Tur

20 · J. Dula

Étoile Carouge

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Diallo

25 V. Felder

32 R. Kadima

22 G. Zrankeon

99 M. Tsoungui

26 S. Bossiwa

6 M. El Jaouhari

8 Ricardo Alves

76 Itaitinga

59 O. Renovales

17 O. Sene

Coach · Pedro Nogueira

Substitutes

23 · L. Huwiler

2 · D. Neves

4 · I. Strohbach

24 · M. Dubosson

21 · M. Holcbecher

88 · L. Essiena

77 · T. Escorza

7 · O. Correia

3 · F. Hoxha

Our number · stade lausanne-ouchy winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
53% The market60%
Us53%
Market60%

We make Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Étoile Carouge1.70 – 0.99
Form · Schweizer Cup this season · since 15 AugW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win60% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 10 OCT 04:0216 OCT 17:45
Our probability · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win53%60%−7
Draw27%22%+5
Étoile Carouge win21%18%+3
Over 2.5 goals50%60%−10
Both teams to score52%57%−5
Over 1.5 goals76%81%−5
Over 3.5 goals28%39%−11
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw79%82%−3
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy clean sheet37%––
Étoile Carouge clean sheet19%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%
0123450 8.3 5.4 3.4 1 10.2 12.7 5.6 2 9.8 9.6 4.7 3 5.6 5.4 2.7 4 2.4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Stade Lausanne-Ouchy down, Étoile Carouge across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.56
Over 2.54 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsSTA 3–0 ETO · ETO 1–1 STA · STA 0–1 ETO · ETO 1–2 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Schweizer Cup this season · since 15 Aug

STADE LAUSANNE-OUCHY

W8–1

ÉTOILE CAROUGE

W2–0