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Rapperswil v FC ST. Gallen

Rapperswil
0–2Full time
FC ST. Gallen

Schweizer Cup · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30
Rapperswil 0–2 FC ST. Gallen FC ST. GALLEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC ST. Gallen win60%
The market said65%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.237
The market’s Brier score0.189

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC ST. Gallen win at 60%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: FC ST. Gallen was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 19–20–60
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Rapperswil v FC ST. Gallen
  4. 31′FC ST. Gallen find the net on 31′. 0–0 · 20–27–53
  5. 32′We published FC ST. Gallen at 60%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 6–14–80
  6. 32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Rapperswil 0–1 FC ST. Gallen
  7. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' FC ST. Gallen win: 60% at kick-off, 80% now
  8. 33′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 6–14–80
  9. 45′30′: L. Gortler on the scoresheet for FC ST. Gallen, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–15–81
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Rapperswil 0–1 FC ST. Gallen
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Rapperswil 0–1 FC ST. Gallen
  12. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Rapperswil
  13. 68′We published FC ST. Gallen at 60%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
  14. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Rapperswil · On: M. Deme · Off: S. Diarrassouba
  15. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Rapperswil · On: M. Kurtishi · Off: E. Senaya
  16. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' FC ST. Gallen
  17. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Rapperswil · On: N. Mupemba · Off: R. Bobadilla
  18. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC ST. Gallen · On: N. Scherrer · Off: A. Balde
  19. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC ST. Gallen · On: C. Boukhalfa · Off: L. Daschner
  20. 79′We published FC ST. Gallen at 60%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  21. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' FC ST. Gallen win: 60% at kick-off, 90% now
  22. 83′A goal for FC ST. Gallen on 83′. 0–1 · 0–7–93
  23. 83′We published FC ST. Gallen at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  24. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Rapperswil 0–2 FC ST. Gallen
  25. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' FC ST. Gallen win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
  26. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Rapperswil
  27. 88′FC ST. Gallen ahead on 82′ through H. Vandermersch. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  28. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC ST. Gallen · On: B. Fazliji · Off: L. Gortler
  29. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC ST. Gallen · On: E. Owusu · Off: A. Hunziker
  30. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Rapperswil
  31. 90′Full time, 0–2. We called FC ST. Gallen at 60% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  32. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Rapperswil · On: E. Rossier · Off: V. Hamdiu
  33. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Rapperswil · On: A. Durrer · Off: A. Bakayoko
  34. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' FC ST. Gallen · On: J. Ruiz · Off: C. Witzig
  35. FTFULL TIME Rapperswil 0–2 FC ST. Gallen
  36. FTRapperswil 0–2 FC ST. Gallen · FC ST. Gallen win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC ST. Gallen are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rapperswil 19%, draw 21%, FC ST. Gallen 60%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Rapperswil v FC ST. GallenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Rapperswil win19%
Draw21%
FC ST. Gallen win60%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundRound of 32

Line-ups

Rapperswil

FC ST. Gallen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rapperswil

FC ST. Gallen

7Days since last match5

Last match: 9 Oct · the Swiss Challenge League

Last match: 11 Oct · the Swiss Super League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rapperswil

Formation not confirmed

18 A. Omerovic

93 A. Bakayoko

28 J. Ambassa

37 W. Le Pogam

3 B. Morgado

31 L. Emini

8 V. Hamdiu

7 Y. Ryter

10 S. Diarrassouba

25 R. Bobadilla

20 E. Senaya

Coach · Selcuk Sasivari

Substitutes

23 · R. Pousa

4 · I. Beka

26 · A. Charveys

47 · M. Deme

54 · M. Kurtishi

9 · N. Mupemba

11 · E. Rossier

5 · A. Durrer

42 · E. Perenzin

FC ST. Gallen

Formation not confirmed

25 L. Watkowiak

26 T. Gaal

4 J. Stanic

68 M. Heydari

64 M. Stevanovic

7 C. Witzig

16 L. Gortler

10 L. Daschner

28 H. Vandermersch

9 A. Hunziker

14 A. Balde

Coach · Enrico Maassen

Substitutes

1 · L. Ati Zigi

74 · J. Ruiz

36 · C. Okoroji

6 · B. Neziri

11 · C. Boukhalfa

23 · B. Fazliji

70 · N. Scherrer

47 · E. Owusu

20 · L. Frokaj

Our number · fc st. gallen winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off
60% The market65%
Us60%
Market65%

We make FC ST. Gallen a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Rapperswil v FC ST. Gallen1.15 – 2.17
Form · Schweizer Cup this season · since 15 AugW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · FC ST. Gallen win65% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 10 OCT 04:0216 OCT 18:46
Our probability · FC ST. Gallen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Rapperswil win19%16%+3
Draw21%20%+1
FC ST. Gallen win60%65%−5
Over 2.5 goals64%65%−1
Both teams to score61%58%+3
Over 1.5 goals85%84%+1
Over 3.5 goals42%45%−3
Rapperswil or draw40%35%+5
Rapperswil clean sheet11%––
FC ST. Gallen clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.8%
0123450 3.9 7.5 8.5 6.2 3.3 1 3.9 9.3 9.8 7.1 3.8 2 2.4 5.2 5.6 4.1 2.2 3 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Rapperswil down, FC ST. Gallen across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting0.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsRAP 0–0 FCS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Schweizer Cup this season · since 15 Aug

RAPPERSWIL

W6–1

FC ST. GALLEN

W3–0