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Model 1.2

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FC Winterthur v FC Luzern

FC Winterthur
0–1Full time
FC Luzern

Schweizer Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40
FC Winterthur 0–1 FC Luzern FC LUZERN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC Luzern win51%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.358
The market’s Brier score0.364

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Luzern win at 51%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: FC Luzern 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 28–21–51
  3. 1′KICK-OFF FC Winterthur v FC Luzern
  4. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' FC Luzern
  5. 45′HALF-TIME FC Winterthur 0–0 FC Luzern
  6. 46′SECOND HALF FC Winterthur 0–0 FC Luzern
  7. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' FC Luzern win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
  8. 53′We said FC Luzern at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 25–36–39
  9. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–37–39
  10. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' FC Luzern
  11. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Luzern win 36%)
  12. 63′We said FC Luzern at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 23–43–34
  13. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Luzern · On: O. Kabwit · Off: L. Silva
  14. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' FC Winterthur
  15. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' FC Luzern win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
  16. 70′We said FC Luzern at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 20–51–29
  17. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Winterthur · On: A. Marchesano · Off: L. Zuffi
  18. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Winterthur · On: E. Kehrer · Off: E. Maluvunu
  19. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' FC Luzern
  20. 76′We said FC Luzern at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 16–60–23
  21. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' FC Luzern win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
  22. 80′We said FC Luzern at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 13–69–19
  23. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' FC Luzern
  24. 83′We said FC Luzern at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 10–76–14
  25. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' FC Winterthur
  26. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' FC Luzern
  27. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' FC Luzern win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
  28. 88′We said FC Luzern at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
  29. 90′0–1 at the end. Our 51% on FC Luzern comes in. 0–1 · 0–0–100
  30. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FC Luzern · On: N. Toggenburger · Off: F. Bongeli
  31. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FC Luzern · On: L. Winkler · Off: M. Zimmermann
  32. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Winterthur · On: R. Buess · Off: B. Beyer
  33. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Winterthur · On: S. Ottiger · Off: F. Rohner
  34. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' FC Luzern
  35. 92′We said FC Luzern at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–1 · 0–3–97
  36. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' FC Winterthur 0–1 FC Luzern
  37. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' FC Luzern win: 51% at kick-off, 97% now
  38. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' FC Luzern win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
  39. 93′A goal for FC Luzern on 90′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–97
  40. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' FC Winterthur · On: A. Turkes · Off: S. Camara
  41. FTFULL TIME FC Winterthur 0–1 FC Luzern
  42. FTFC Winterthur 0–1 FC Luzern · FC Luzern win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Luzern are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Winterthur 28%, draw 21%, FC Luzern 51%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on FC Winterthur v FC LuzernBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC Winterthur win28%
Draw21%
FC Luzern win51%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundRound of 32

Line-ups

FC Winterthur

FC Luzern

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Winterthur

FC Luzern

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · the Swiss Challenge League

Last match: 10 Oct · the Swiss Super League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Winterthur

Formation not confirmed

75 A. Spagnoli

27 F. Rohner

33 T. Citherlet

16 R. Arnold

4 S. Camara

44 S. Cueni

7 L. Zuffi

19 Y. Odin

8 T. Golliard

68 B. Beyer

37 E. Maluvunu

Coach · Patrick Rahmen

Substitutes

1 · M. Kuster

6 · E. Essiam

9 · R. Buess

11 · E. Kehrer

18 · S. Diaby

21 · S. Ottiger

22 · A. Turkes

45 · A. Jankewitz

20 · A. Marchesano

FC Luzern

Formation not confirmed

30 K. Letica

20 P. Dorn

13 B. H. Freimann

46 B. Freimann

14 A. Ciganiks

10 L. Silva

80 M. Zimmermann

6 L. Bertone

11 M. Di Giusto

18 F. Bongeli

19 D. Mikolajewski

Coach · Jorg Portmann

Substitutes

1 · S. Simoni

5 · S. Knezevic

21 · L. Luthi

29 · L. Winkler

24 · T. Owusu

7 · A. Oehlers

16 · O. Kabwit

15 · N. Toggenburger

22 · R. Dantas Fernandes

Our number · fc luzern winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
51% The market51%
Us51%
Market51%

We make FC Luzern a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FC Winterthur v FC Luzern1.58 – 2.20
Form · Schweizer Cup this season · since 15 AugW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · FC Luzern win51% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 16:12
Our probability · FC Luzern win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC Winterthur win28%28%0
Draw21%21%0
FC Luzern win51%51%0
Over 2.5 goals72%65%+7
Both teams to score70%65%+5
Over 1.5 goals89%84%+5
Over 3.5 goals52%45%+7
FC Winterthur or draw49%49%0
FC Winterthur clean sheet12%––
FC Luzern clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.5%
0123450 2.7 4.8 5.5 4.0 2.2 1 3.4 8.2 8.5 6.2 3.4 2 3.0 6.2 6.7 4.9 2.7 3 3.3 3.5 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FC Winterthur down, FC Luzern across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.60
Over 2.59 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsFCW 0–3 FCL · FCL 1–2 FCW · FCL 1–3 FCW · FCW 2–2 FCL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Schweizer Cup this season · since 15 Aug

FC WINTERTHUR

W3–1

FC LUZERN

W3–0