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Model 1.2

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Tuggen v Schötz

Tuggen
2–1Full time
Schötz

Erste Liga Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Tuggen 2–1 Schötz TUGGEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Tuggen win51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.365

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tuggen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tuggen 51%, draw 19%, Schötz 30%. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 81%.

The AI’s read on Tuggen v SchötzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tuggen win51%
Draw19%
Schötz win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundSemi-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tuggen

Schötz

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 3

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tuggen winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
51% The market–
Us51%

We make Tuggen a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–2.0, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Tuggen v Schötz2.62 – 2.03

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Tuggen win

Published at 52%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Tuggen win51%––
Draw19%––
Schötz win30%––
Over 2.5 goals84%––
Both teams to score81%––
Over 1.5 goals95%––
Over 3.5 goals68%––
Tuggen or draw70%––
Tuggen clean sheet13%––
Schötz clean sheet7%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.8%
0123450 1 2.3 5.2 5.2 3.5 2 3.3 6.6 6.8 4.6 2.3 3 2.9 5.8 5.9 4.0 2.0 4 3.8 3.9 2.6 5 2.0
under 2% 5% 12%+Tuggen down, Schötz across0–5 goals a side shown (93.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Erste Liga Cup this season

TUGGEN

No matches in our record yet.

SCHÖTZ

No matches in our record yet.