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Muttenz v Thalwil

Muttenz
4–1Full time
Thalwil

Erste Liga Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40
Muttenz 4–1 Thalwil MUTTENZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Muttenz win68%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.152

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Muttenz are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Muttenz 68%, draw 18%, Thalwil 14%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Muttenz v ThalwilBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Muttenz win68%
Draw18%
Thalwil win14%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundSemi-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Muttenz

Thalwil

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 2

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muttenz winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
68% The market–
Us68%

We make Muttenz a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.0, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Muttenz v Thalwil2.47 – 1.05

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 16:12
Our probability · Muttenz win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Muttenz win68%––
Draw18%––
Thalwil win14%––
Over 2.5 goals68%––
Both teams to score60%––
Over 1.5 goals87%––
Over 3.5 goals47%––
Muttenz or draw86%––
Muttenz clean sheet35%––
Thalwil clean sheet8%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%
0123450 3.2 2.8 1 7.0 7.9 4.0 2 9.0 9.5 5.0 3 7.4 7.8 4.1 4 4.6 4.8 2.5 5 2.3 2.4
under 2% 5% 12%+Muttenz down, Thalwil across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Erste Liga Cup this season

MUTTENZ

No matches in our record yet.

THALWIL

No matches in our record yet.