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Model 1.2

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Mendrisio v Kosova

Mendrisio
3–1Full time
Kosova

Erste Liga Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Mendrisio 3–1 Kosova MENDRISIO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Mendrisio win43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.496

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mendrisio are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mendrisio 43%, draw 26%, Kosova 32%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Mendrisio v KosovaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mendrisio win43%
Draw26%
Kosova win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:30

RoundSemi-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mendrisio

Kosova

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 3

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mendrisio winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
43% The market–
Us43%

We make Mendrisio a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Mendrisio v Kosova1.50 – 1.26

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Mendrisio win43%––
Draw26%––
Kosova win32%––
Over 2.5 goals52%––
Both teams to score55%––
Over 1.5 goals76%––
Over 3.5 goals30%––
Mendrisio or draw68%––
Mendrisio clean sheet29%––
Kosova clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%
0123450 6.7 7.9 5.1 2.1 1 9.4 12.0 7.4 3.1 2 7.1 8.8 5.5 2.3 3 3.6 4.4 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Mendrisio down, Kosova across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.52 of 7
Both scored2 of 7
Last meetingsKOS 0–0 MEN · MEN 4–3 KOS · KOS 1–0 MEN · MEN 1–0 KOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Erste Liga Cup this season

MENDRISIO

No matches in our record yet.

KOSOVA

No matches in our record yet.