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Model 1.2

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Gossau v Zug

Gossau
1–0Full time
Zug

Erste Liga Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Gossau 1–0 Zug ZUG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Zug win41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.629

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zug are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gossau 36%, draw 23%, Zug 41%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Gossau v ZugBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gossau win36%
Draw23%
Zug win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundSemi-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gossau

Zug

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 3

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zug winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
41% The market–
Us41%

We make Zug a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Gossau v Zug1.73 – 1.85

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Zug win

Published at 43%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Gossau win36%––
Draw23%––
Zug win41%––
Over 2.5 goals69%––
Both teams to score70%––
Over 1.5 goals88%––
Over 3.5 goals48%––
Gossau or draw59%––
Gossau clean sheet16%––
Zug clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.1 4.9 4.8 3.0 1 4.5 9.2 8.3 5.1 2.4 2 4.2 7.7 7.1 4.4 2.0 3 2.4 4.4 4.1 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Gossau down, Zug across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Erste Liga Cup this season

GOSSAU

No matches in our record yet.

ZUG

No matches in our record yet.