Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Erste Liga Cup › Chênois v Stade Payerne

Back
Switzerland flag

Chênois v Stade Payerne

Chênois
2–5After extra time
Stade Payerne

Erste Liga Cup · SAT 17 OCT

After 90 minutesGraded 20 Oct 03:22
Chênois 2–2 Stade Payerne CHÊNOIS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Chênois win57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.995

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 2–2, the score after 90 minutes. It finished 2–5 after extra time.

Corrected on 20 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 2–5; the score is now 2–2 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chênois are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chênois 57%, draw 21%, Stade Payerne 21%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Chênois v Stade PayerneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chênois win57%
Draw21%
Stade Payerne win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundSemi-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chênois

Stade Payerne

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 1

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chênois winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
57% The market–
Us57%

We make Chênois a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Chênois v Stade Payerne2.09 – 1.19

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 15:16
Our probability · Chênois win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Chênois win57%––
Draw21%––
Stade Payerne win21%––
Over 2.5 goals63%––
Both teams to score61%––
Over 1.5 goals84%––
Over 3.5 goals41%––
Chênois or draw79%––
Chênois clean sheet31%––
Stade Payerne clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%
0123450 4.2 4.3 2.7 1 7.7 9.6 5.5 2.2 2 8.2 9.5 5.7 2.3 3 5.7 6.6 3.9 4 3.0 3.5 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Chênois down, Stade Payerne across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.25
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsCHE 2–0 STA · STA 0–0 CHE · CHE 1–2 STA · STA 2–2 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Erste Liga Cup this season

CHÊNOIS

No matches in our record yet.

STADE PAYERNE

No matches in our record yet.