Yverdon Sport v SC Kriens prediction · Challenge League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Yverdon SportDrawSC Kriens

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Yverdon Sport 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yverdon Sport are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yverdon Sport 58%, draw 23%, SC Kriens 19%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Yverdon Sport v SC KriensBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Yverdon Sport win58%

Draw23%

SC Kriens win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade Municipal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yverdon Sport

SC Kriens

8Days since last match16

Last match: 17 Oct · Schweizer Cup

Last match: 9 Oct · the Swiss Challenge League

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Yverdon Sport	10	+7	19
5	SC Kriens	10	+5	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yverdon sport winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

58% The market62%

Us58%

~~Market~~62%

We make Yverdon Sport a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yverdon Sport v SC Kriens~~2.10 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 15~~3 v 5

~~The market · Yverdon Sport win~~62% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yverdon Sport win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yverdon Sport win	58%	62%	−4
Draw	23%	20%	+3
SC Kriens win	19%	18%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	68%	−6
Both teams to score	59%	64%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	40%	49%	−9
Yverdon Sport or draw	81%	82%	−1
Yverdon Sport clean sheet	33%	–	–
SC Kriens clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.4 3.5 2.7 1 7.2 10.5 5.3 2.0 2 8.7 9.4 5.3 2.0 3 6.1 6.6 3.7 4 3.3 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yverdon Sport down, SC Kriens across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 954 Challenge League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yverdon Sport at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). SC Kriens away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for Yverdon Sport, 1.12 for SC Kriens. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SCK 0–2 YVE · YVE 3–2 SCK · SCK 0–3 YVE · YVE 2–0 SCK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 28 Aug

YVERDON SPORT

DWWLDW1–1 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–0

SC KRIENS

WDLDWD3–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	11	+17	25
2	FC Winterthur	11	+12	21
3	Yverdon Sport	10	+7	19
4	Neuchatel Xamax FC	11	−2	16
5	SC Kriens	10	+5	15
6	FC Aarau	11	−4	12
7	Étoile Carouge	11	−5	12
8	Rapperswil	11	−4	11
9	FC WIL 1900	11	−6	11
10	Stade Nyonnais	11	−20	5