Home › Football › Challenge League › Stade Nyonnais v FC Aarau

Stade Nyonnais v FC Aarau

Stade Nyonnais

2–1Full time

FC Aarau

Challenge League · FRI 9 OCT · Colovray Sports Centre

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:00

Stade Nyonnais 2–1 FC Aarau FC AARAU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Aarau win~~55%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.994

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.125

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Aarau win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Aarau 55% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 22–22–57
1′KICK-OFF Stade Nyonnais v FC Aarau
31′🟨 YELLOW · 32' R. Londja · Stade Nyonnais
38′🟨 YELLOW · 39' R. Philippin · Stade Nyonnais
45′SECOND HALF Stade Nyonnais 0–0 FC Aarau
47′🟨 YELLOW · 32' R. Londja · Stade Nyonnais
47′🟨 YELLOW · 39' R. Philippin · Stade Nyonnais
48′🟨 YELLOW · 32' R. Londja · Stade Nyonnais
48′🟨 YELLOW · 39' R. Philippin · Stade Nyonnais
55′🟨 YELLOW · 56' D. Afriyie · FC Aarau
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Stade Nyonnais 0–0 FC Aarau · I. Aliu
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Stade Nyonnais 1–0 FC Aarau · I. Aliu
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Aarau · On: B. Senyurt · Off: L. Obexer
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Aarau · On: M. Guindo · Off: D. Afriyie
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Stade Nyonnais · On: F. Ahuissou · Off: L. Ribeiro
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Stade Nyonnais · On: C. Betoubam · Off: F. Lentini
74′⚽ GOAL · 75' Stade Nyonnais 1–0 FC Aarau · S. Edougue (assist C. Betoubam)
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Stade Nyonnais 2–0 FC Aarau · S. Edougue
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FC Aarau · On: D. Coric · Off: I. Aliu
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Stade Nyonnais · On: J. Mandaka · Off: S. Edougue
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Stade Nyonnais · On: J. Mandaka · Off: S. Edougue
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Stade Nyonnais · On: F. Hysenaj · Off: R. Londja
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Stade Nyonnais · On: E. Gashi · Off: R. Philippin
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Aarau · On: H. Koide · Off: S. Vladi
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' Stade Nyonnais 2–0 FC Aarau · M. Guindo
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Stade Nyonnais 2–1 FC Aarau · M. Guindo
FTFULL TIME Stade Nyonnais 2–1 FC Aarau
FTStade Nyonnais 2–1 FC Aarau · FC Aarau win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Stade Nyonnais win21%

Draw24%

FC Aarau win55%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:15

Venue · Colovray Sports Centre

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Stade Nyonnais

Formation not confirmed

40 M. Aubert

2 R. Ouchard

23 K. Thermoncy

4 S. Fankhauser

66 R. Philippin

7 F. Lentini

8 L. Ribeiro

42 E. Akichi

9 M. Miguel

70 R. Londja

27 S. Edougue

Coach · Aurelien Mioch

Substitutes

1 · M. Mazzeo

3 · E. Gashi

26 · G. Gomis

6 · F. Ahuissou

5 · J. Mandaka

17 · E. Ndjoko

11 · F. Hysenaj

21 · G. Figueiredo

24 · C. Betoubam

FC Aarau

Formation not confirmed

93 L. Velickovic

15 S. Muller

2 M. Thaler

3 R. Guzzo

6 I. Aliu

29 M. Dickenmann

31 V. Petit-Viretti

20 K. Ndau

27 L. Obexer

18 D. Afriyie

10 S. Vladi

Coach · Brunello Iacopetta

Substitutes

30 · A. Hirzel

4 · B. Hasani

24 · T. Arkovic

42 · B. Senyurt

80 · A. Beka Beka

16 · A. Bizzarri

28 · D. Coric

11 · H. Koide

7 · M. Guindo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Stade Nyonnais

Formation not confirmed

40 M. Aubert

2 R. Ouchard

23 K. Thermoncy

4 S. Fankhauser

66 R. Philippin

7 F. Lentini

8 L. Ribeiro

42 E. Akichi

9 M. Miguel

70 R. Londja

27 S. Edougue

Coach · Aurelien Mioch

Substitutes

1 · M. Mazzeo

3 · E. Gashi

26 · G. Gomis

6 · F. Ahuissou

5 · J. Mandaka

17 · E. Ndjoko

11 · F. Hysenaj

21 · G. Figueiredo

24 · C. Betoubam

FC Aarau

Formation not confirmed

93 L. Velickovic

15 S. Muller

2 M. Thaler

3 R. Guzzo

6 I. Aliu

29 M. Dickenmann

31 V. Petit-Viretti

20 K. Ndau

27 L. Obexer

18 D. Afriyie

10 S. Vladi

Coach · Brunello Iacopetta

Substitutes

30 · A. Hirzel

4 · B. Hasani

24 · T. Arkovic

42 · B. Senyurt

80 · A. Beka Beka

16 · A. Bizzarri

28 · D. Coric

11 · H. Koide

7 · M. Guindo

Our number · fc aarau winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

55% The market63%

Us55%

~~Market~~63%

We make FC Aarau a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc aarau win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stade Nyonnais win	21%	17%	+4
Draw	24%	20%	+4
FC Aarau win	55%	63%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	60%	69%	−8
Both teams to score	60%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	86%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	38%	48%	−10
Stade Nyonnais or draw	45%	37%	+8
Stade Nyonnais clean sheet	14%	–	–
FC Aarau clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.7 7.6 8.6 5.7 2.8 1 3.9 11.0 9.7 6.4 3.2 2 2.9 5.7 5.6 3.7 3 2.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stade Nyonnais down, FC Aarau across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 945 Challenge League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 3.85 goals a meeting; 8 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stade Nyonnais at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Aarau away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Stade Nyonnais, 1.98 for FC Aarau. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.85

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 13

~~Both scored~~9 of 13

~~Last meetings~~FCA 2–1 STA · FCA 5–1 STA · STA 1–1 FCA · FCA 0–1 STA

Form · last six in Challenge League

STADE NYONNAIS

DLDLLL0–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 0–5

FC AARAU

LWDWDL1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	9	+14	21
2	FC Winterthur	9	+11	18
3	Yverdon Sport	9	+5	16
4	SC Kriens	9	+5	14
5	FC Aarau	9	−2	12
6	Neuchatel Xamax FC	9	−5	12
7	Rapperswil	9	−1	10
8	Étoile Carouge	9	−4	9
9	FC WIL 1900	9	−6	9
10	Stade Nyonnais	9	−17	2