Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Yverdon Sport prediction · Challenge League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Stade Lausanne-OuchyDrawYverdon Sport

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 41%, draw 28%, Yverdon Sport 32%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Yverdon SportBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win41%

Draw28%

Yverdon Sport win32%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStade Olympique de la Pontaise

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Yverdon Sport

7Days since last match13

Last match: 23 Oct · the Swiss Challenge League

Last match: 17 Oct · Schweizer Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stade lausanne-ouchy winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Yverdon Sport~~1.52 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 25 v 19~~1 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win	41%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Yverdon Sport win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw	68%	–	–
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy clean sheet	27%	–	–
Yverdon Sport clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 7.4 6.3 5.1 2.3 1 7.5 13.1 7.6 3.4 2 6.8 8.8 5.8 2.6 3 3.5 4.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stade Lausanne-Ouchy down, Yverdon Sport across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 953 Challenge League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home: 2.17 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Yverdon Sport away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 1.32 for Yverdon Sport. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~YVE 0–0 STA · STA 0–3 YVE · YVE 0–2 STA · STA 4–0 YVE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 28 Aug

STADE LAUSANNE-OUCHY

WWWDWD3–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

YVERDON SPORT

DWWLDW1–1 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	11	+17	25
2	FC Winterthur	11	+12	21
3	Yverdon Sport	10	+7	19
4	Neuchatel Xamax FC	11	−2	16
5	SC Kriens	10	+5	15
6	FC Aarau	10	−3	12
7	Rapperswil	11	−4	11
8	FC WIL 1900	11	−6	11
9	Étoile Carouge	10	−6	9
10	Stade Nyonnais	11	−20	5