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Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Neuchatel Xamax FC

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
0–0Full time
Neuchatel Xamax FC

Challenge League · FRI 23 OCT · Stade Olympique de la Pontaise

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–0 Neuchatel Xamax FC STADE LAUSANNE-OUCHY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win53%
The market said59%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.894
The market’s Brier score0.997

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win at 53%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–25–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Neuchatel Xamax FC
  4. 17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' R. Freitas · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
  5. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' E. Abedini · Neuchatel Xamax FC
  6. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
  7. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' J. Nkama · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
  8. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
  9. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Draw 50%)
  10. 48′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–38–21
  11. 54′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–42–20
  12. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' M. Camara · Neuchatel Xamax FC
  13. 55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 38–42–20
  14. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win 40%)
  15. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: J. Fontana · Off: Y. Peverelli
  16. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: J. Unjanque · Off: P. Ambrose
  17. 62′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–48–18
  18. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · On: J. A. Tur · Off: J. Nkama
  19. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · On: V. Tritten · Off: R. Freitas
  20. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · On: N. Emeran · Off: C. Sow
  21. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
  22. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' L. Seji · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
  23. 68′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–55–16
  24. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: A. Azemi · Off: D. Carraco
  25. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · On: J. Atangana · Off: M. Sartoretti
  26. 74′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–63–13
  27. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
  28. 78′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
  29. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: L. Mulaj · Off: I. Keita
  30. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: N. Garcia · Off: N. Gjorgjev
  31. 82′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
  32. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win: 53% at kick-off, 12% now
  33. 86′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–5
  34. 92′We said Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
  35. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
  36. FTFULL TIME Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–0 Neuchatel Xamax FC
  37. FTStade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–0 Neuchatel Xamax FC · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 53%, draw 25%, Neuchatel Xamax FC 22%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Neuchatel Xamax FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win53%
Draw25%
Neuchatel Xamax FC win22%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStade Olympique de la Pontaise

RefereeA. Kanagasingam

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Neuchatel Xamax FC

7Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Schweizer Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · Schweizer Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Stade Lausanne-Ouchy10+1724
5Neuchatel Xamax FC10−215

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stade lausanne-ouchy winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
53% The market59%
Us53%
Market59%

We make Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy v Neuchatel Xamax FC1.87 – 1.13
Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 28 AugW4 D2 L0 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 24 v 151 v 5
The market · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win59% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 18:18
Our probability · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win53%59%−6
Draw25%22%+3
Neuchatel Xamax FC win22%19%+3
Over 2.5 goals57%62%−5
Both teams to score58%59%−1
Over 1.5 goals81%82%−1
Over 3.5 goals35%40%−5
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw78%81%−3
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy clean sheet33%––
Neuchatel Xamax FC clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%
0123450 6.4 4.4 3.2 1 8.2 11.7 5.9 2.2 2 8.7 9.7 5.5 2.1 3 5.4 6.1 3.4 4 2.6 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Stade Lausanne-Ouchy down, Neuchatel Xamax FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.70
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsNEU 1–2 STA · STA 2–1 NEU · NEU 3–0 STA · STA 3–0 NEU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 28 Aug

STADE LAUSANNE-OUCHY

DWWWDW1–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 3–0

NEUCHATEL XAMAX FC

LLLWLW1–2 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Stade Lausanne-Ouchy10+1724
2Yverdon Sport10+719
3FC Winterthur10+818
4SC Kriens10+515
5Neuchatel Xamax FC10−215
6FC Aarau10−312
7Rapperswil10−410
8FC WIL 190010−610
9Étoile Carouge10−69
10Stade Nyonnais10−165

The competition's standings before kick-off.