Rapperswil v Stade Nyonnais prediction · Challenge League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RapperswilDrawStade Nyonnais

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Rapperswil 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rapperswil are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rapperswil 55%, draw 24%, Stade Nyonnais 21%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Rapperswil v Stade NyonnaisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Rapperswil win55%

Draw24%

Stade Nyonnais win21%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rapperswil

Stade Nyonnais

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Swiss Challenge League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Rapperswil	11	−4	11
10	Stade Nyonnais	11	−20	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rapperswil winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Rapperswil a 55% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rapperswil v Stade Nyonnais~~1.98 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 1 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 5~~8 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rapperswil win	55%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Stade Nyonnais win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Rapperswil or draw	79%	–	–
Rapperswil clean sheet	32%	–	–
Stade Nyonnais clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.8 3.8 2.9 1 7.5 11.1 5.7 2.2 2 8.5 9.7 5.6 2.2 3 5.7 6.4 3.7 4 2.8 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rapperswil down, Stade Nyonnais across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 954 Challenge League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rapperswil at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Stade Nyonnais away: 0.33 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Rapperswil, 1.15 for Stade Nyonnais. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~STA 1–2 RAP · RAP 2–1 STA · STA 2–1 RAP · RAP 1–0 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 1 Sept

RAPPERSWIL

DLWWLD1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 2–2

STADE NYONNAIS

DLLLWL2–2 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	11	+17	25
2	FC Winterthur	11	+12	21
3	Yverdon Sport	10	+7	19
4	Neuchatel Xamax FC	11	−2	16
5	SC Kriens	10	+5	15
6	FC Aarau	11	−4	12
7	Étoile Carouge	11	−5	12
8	Rapperswil	11	−4	11
9	FC WIL 1900	11	−6	11
10	Stade Nyonnais	11	−20	5