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Neuchatel Xamax FC v FC Winterthur

Neuchatel Xamax FC
3–0Full time
FC Winterthur

Challenge League · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:00
Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 FC Winterthur FC WINTERTHUR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC Winterthur win49%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.837
The market’s Brier score0.752

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 54 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Winterthur win at 49%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: FC Winterthur was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 27–23–50
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Neuchatel Xamax FC v FC Winterthur
  4. 8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' M. Facchinetti · Neuchatel Xamax FC
  5. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 8' M. Facchinetti · Neuchatel Xamax FC
  6. 24′⚽ GOAL · 25' Neuchatel Xamax FC 0–0 FC Winterthur · N. Gjorgjev
  7. 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–0 FC Winterthur · N. Gjorgjev
  8. 28′Neuchatel Xamax FC ahead on 25′ through N. Gjorgjev. 1–0. 1–0 · 55–24–20
  9. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' FC Winterthur win: 49% at kick-off, 20% now
  10. 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Neuchatel Xamax FC win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was FC Winterthur win 20%)
  11. 34′We said FC Winterthur at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 57–25–19
  12. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' FC Winterthur win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
  13. 39′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 58–25–17
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–0 FC Winterthur
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–0 FC Winterthur
  16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Winterthur · On: L. Zuffi · Off: S. Cueni
  17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Winterthur · On: E. Kehrer · Off: E. Maluvunu
  18. 48′⚽ GOAL · 49' Neuchatel Xamax FC 1–0 FC Winterthur · M. Facchinetti
  19. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Neuchatel Xamax FC 2–0 FC Winterthur · M. Facchinetti
  20. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: M. Dind · Off: Y. Peverelli
  21. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: D. Carraco · Off: A. Bourezak
  22. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' F. Rohner · FC Winterthur
  23. 67′⚽ GOAL · 69' Neuchatel Xamax FC 2–0 FC Winterthur · L. Seydoux
  24. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 FC Winterthur · L. Seydoux
  25. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: L. Mulaj · Off: N. Gjorgjev
  26. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Winterthur · On: A. Turkes · Off: B. Beyer
  27. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Winterthur · On: A. Jankewitz · Off: A. Marchesano
  28. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: L. Veya · Off: P. Ambrose
  29. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: A. Azemi · Off: I. Keita
  30. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 8' M. Facchinetti · Neuchatel Xamax FC
  31. 83′⚽ GOAL · 25' Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 FC Winterthur · N. Gjorgjev (assist I. Keita)
  32. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Winterthur · On: L. Zuffi · Off: S. Cueni
  33. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Winterthur · On: E. Kehrer · Off: E. Maluvunu
  34. 83′⚽ GOAL · 49' Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 FC Winterthur · M. Facchinetti
  35. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: M. Dind · Off: Y. Peverelli
  36. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: D. Carraco · Off: A. Bourezak
  37. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 62' F. Rohner · FC Winterthur
  38. 83′⚽ GOAL · 69' Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 FC Winterthur · L. Seydoux
  39. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: L. Mulaj · Off: N. Gjorgjev
  40. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Winterthur · On: A. Turkes · Off: B. Beyer
  41. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Winterthur · On: A. Jankewitz · Off: A. Marchesano
  42. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: L. Veya · Off: P. Ambrose
  43. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: A. Azemi · Off: I. Keita
  44. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 8' M. Facchinetti · Neuchatel Xamax FC
  45. 86′⚽ GOAL · 25' Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 FC Winterthur · N. Gjorgjev (assist I. Keita)
  46. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Winterthur · On: L. Zuffi · Off: S. Cueni
  47. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Winterthur · On: E. Kehrer · Off: E. Maluvunu
  48. 86′⚽ GOAL · 49' Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 FC Winterthur · M. Facchinetti
  49. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: M. Dind · Off: Y. Peverelli
  50. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: D. Carraco · Off: A. Bourezak
  51. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 62' F. Rohner · FC Winterthur
  52. 86′⚽ GOAL · 69' Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 FC Winterthur · L. Seydoux
  53. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: L. Mulaj · Off: N. Gjorgjev
  54. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Winterthur · On: A. Turkes · Off: B. Beyer
  55. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Winterthur · On: A. Jankewitz · Off: A. Marchesano
  56. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: L. Veya · Off: P. Ambrose
  57. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Neuchatel Xamax FC · On: A. Azemi · Off: I. Keita
  58. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 88' FC Winterthur · On: R. Buess · Off: T. Golliard
  59. FTFULL TIME Neuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 FC Winterthur
  60. FTNeuchatel Xamax FC 3–0 FC Winterthur · FC Winterthur win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Neuchatel Xamax FC win27%
Draw25%
FC Winterthur win49%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Formation not confirmed

13 U. Likar

60 M. Camara

4 E. Abedini

7 M. Facchinetti

16 L. Seydoux

41 A. Bourezak

8 R. Bayard

77 Y. Peverelli

24 I. Keita

32 P. Ambrose

28 N. Gjorgjev

Coach · Bruno Berner

Substitutes

1 · A. Mossi

5 · N. Gunnarsson

36 · S. Reinhard

25 · M. Dind

81 · D. Carraco

35 · A. Azemi

10 · L. Mulaj

18 · J. De Donno

40 · L. Veya

FC Winterthur

Formation not confirmed

75 A. Spagnoli

21 S. Ottiger

16 R. Arnold

4 S. Camara

27 F. Rohner

19 Y. Odin

44 S. Cueni

8 T. Golliard

20 A. Marchesano

37 E. Maluvunu

68 B. Beyer

Coach · Patrick Rahmen

Substitutes

1 · M. Kuster

18 · S. Diaby

33 · T. Citherlet

7 · L. Zuffi

45 · A. Jankewitz

6 · E. Essiam

9 · R. Buess

11 · E. Kehrer

22 · A. Turkes

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Neuchatel Xamax FC

Formation not confirmed

13 U. Likar

60 M. Camara

4 E. Abedini

7 M. Facchinetti

16 L. Seydoux

41 A. Bourezak

8 R. Bayard

77 Y. Peverelli

24 I. Keita

32 P. Ambrose

28 N. Gjorgjev

Coach · Bruno Berner

Substitutes

1 · A. Mossi

5 · N. Gunnarsson

36 · S. Reinhard

25 · M. Dind

81 · D. Carraco

35 · A. Azemi

10 · L. Mulaj

18 · J. De Donno

40 · L. Veya

FC Winterthur

Formation not confirmed

75 A. Spagnoli

21 S. Ottiger

16 R. Arnold

4 S. Camara

27 F. Rohner

19 Y. Odin

44 S. Cueni

8 T. Golliard

20 A. Marchesano

37 E. Maluvunu

68 B. Beyer

Coach · Patrick Rahmen

Substitutes

1 · M. Kuster

18 · S. Diaby

33 · T. Citherlet

7 · L. Zuffi

45 · A. Jankewitz

6 · E. Essiam

9 · R. Buess

11 · E. Kehrer

22 · A. Turkes

Our number · fc winterthur winPublished 9 Oct 18:34
49% The market45%
Us49%
Market45%

We make FC Winterthur a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.9.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Neuchatel Xamax FC win27%30%−4
Draw25%24%0
FC Winterthur win49%45%+3
Over 2.5 goals61%64%−3
Both teams to score63%65%−3
Over 1.5 goals83%83%0
Over 3.5 goals39%44%−4
Neuchatel Xamax FC or draw51%55%−3
Neuchatel Xamax FC clean sheet16%––
FC Winterthur clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%
0123450 5.5 6.6 7.1 4.4 2.1 1 4.4 11.3 9.2 5.7 2.7 2 3.7 6.7 6.1 3.8 3 3.0 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Neuchatel Xamax FC down, FC Winterthur across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.60
Over 2.53 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsFCW 4–0 NEU · FCW 3–1 NEU · NEU 0–0 FCW · NEU 1–1 FCW

Form · last six in Challenge League

NEUCHATEL XAMAX FC

LLLLWL1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 0–3

FC WINTERTHUR

WDDWWW2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Stade Lausanne-Ouchy9+1421
2FC Winterthur9+1118
3Yverdon Sport9+516
4SC Kriens9+514
5FC Aarau9−212
6Neuchatel Xamax FC9−512
7Rapperswil9−110
8Étoile Carouge9−49
9FC WIL 19009−69
10Stade Nyonnais9−172

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.