Neuchatel Xamax FC v FC Aarau prediction · Challenge League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Neuchatel Xamax FCDrawFC Aarau

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:15

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Aarau 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FC Aarau just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Neuchatel Xamax FC 35%, draw 25%, FC Aarau 39%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Neuchatel Xamax FC v FC AarauBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Neuchatel Xamax FC win35%

Draw25%

FC Aarau win39%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:15

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Neuchatel Xamax FC

FC Aarau

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · the Swiss Challenge League

Last match: 24 Oct · the Swiss Challenge League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Neuchatel Xamax FC	11	−2	16
6	FC Aarau	10	−3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc aarau winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make FC Aarau a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Neuchatel Xamax FC v FC Aarau~~1.60 – 1.69

~~Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 12~~4 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Neuchatel Xamax FC win	35%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
FC Aarau win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Neuchatel Xamax FC or draw	61%	–	–
Neuchatel Xamax FC clean sheet	19%	–	–
FC Aarau clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.1 5.1 5.3 3.0 1 4.7 11.3 8.4 4.8 2.0 2 4.8 8.0 6.7 3.8 3 2.6 4.3 3.6 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Neuchatel Xamax FC down, FC Aarau across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 954 Challenge League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Neuchatel Xamax FC at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). FC Aarau away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Neuchatel Xamax FC, 1.69 for FC Aarau. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCA 2–1 NEU · NEU 1–3 FCA · FCA 1–0 NEU · NEU 1–2 FCA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 31 Aug

NEUCHATEL XAMAX FC

LLWLWD1–2 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 0–0

FC AARAU

DWDLLL2–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	11	+17	25
2	FC Winterthur	11	+12	21
3	Yverdon Sport	10	+7	19
4	Neuchatel Xamax FC	11	−2	16
5	SC Kriens	10	+5	15
6	FC Aarau	10	−3	12
7	Rapperswil	11	−4	11
8	FC WIL 1900	11	−6	11
9	Étoile Carouge	10	−6	9
10	Stade Nyonnais	11	−20	5