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FC Winterthur v Stade Nyonnais

FC Winterthur

4–0Full time

Stade Nyonnais

Challenge League · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:01

FC Winterthur 4–0 Stade Nyonnais FC WINTERTHUR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Winterthur win~~68%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.152

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.083

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Winterthur win at 68%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Winterthur was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–20–12
1′KICK-OFF FC Winterthur v Stade Nyonnais
11′A. Marchesano scores for FC Winterthur on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–4
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' FC Winterthur 1–0 Stade Nyonnais · A. Marchesano
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' FC Winterthur win: 68% at kick-off, 87% now
12′We published FC Winterthur at 68%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
29′29′: E. Kehrer on the scoresheet for FC Winterthur, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
29′We published FC Winterthur at 68%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–1
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' FC Winterthur 2–0 Stade Nyonnais · E. Kehrer
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' FC Winterthur win: 68% at kick-off, 97% now
38′We published FC Winterthur at 68%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' FC Winterthur 3–0 Stade Nyonnais
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' FC Winterthur win: 68% at kick-off, over 99% now
39′FC Winterthur ahead on 38′ through A. Turkes. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME FC Winterthur 3–0 Stade Nyonnais
45′SECOND HALF FC Winterthur 3–0 Stade Nyonnais
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Stade Nyonnais · On: F. Hysenaj · Off: M. Miguel
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Winterthur · On: E. Maluvunu · Off: F. Rohner
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' J. Mandaka · Stade Nyonnais
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' M. Regillo · Stade Nyonnais
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Stade Nyonnais · On: P. Moulin · Off: J. Mandaka
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Stade Nyonnais · On: G. Figueiredo · Off: R. Londja
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Stade Nyonnais · On: E. Ndjoko · Off: F. Lentini
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Winterthur · On: R. Buess · Off: A. Turkes
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Winterthur · On: A. Jankewitz · Off: A. Marchesano
73′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Winterthur · On: B. Beyer · Off: E. Kehrer
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' FC Winterthur 4–0 Stade Nyonnais
76′E. Maluvunu scores for FC Winterthur on 75′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Stade Nyonnais · On: C. Betoubam · Off: M. Regillo
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' R. Ouchard · Stade Nyonnais
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Winterthur · On: E. Essiam · Off: Y. Odin
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' K. Thermoncy · Stade Nyonnais
90′Full time, 4–0. We called FC Winterthur at 68% — that one lands. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME FC Winterthur 4–0 Stade Nyonnais
FTFC Winterthur 4–0 Stade Nyonnais · FC Winterthur win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Winterthur are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Winterthur 68%, draw 20%, Stade Nyonnais 12%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on FC Winterthur v Stade NyonnaisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FC Winterthur win68%

Draw20%

Stade Nyonnais win12%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:15

RoundMatchday 11

RefereeA. Dudic

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Winterthur

Stade Nyonnais

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Schweizer Cup

Last match: 16 Oct · Schweizer Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Winterthur	10	+8	18
10	Stade Nyonnais	10	−16	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc winterthur winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 16:47 · locked at kick-off

68% The market77%

Us68%

~~Market~~77%

We make FC Winterthur a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Winterthur v Stade Nyonnais~~2.33 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 5~~3 v 10

~~The market · FC Winterthur win~~77% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Winterthur win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 68% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Winterthur win	68%	77%	−9
Draw	20%	14%	+6
Stade Nyonnais win	12%	9%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	62%	69%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	53%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	86%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	50%	−10
FC Winterthur or draw	88%	91%	−3
FC Winterthur clean sheet	42%	–	–
Stade Nyonnais clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.9%

0123450 5.3 2.7 1 8.6 9.2 3.6 2 10.9 9.4 4.1 3 8.4 7.2 3.2 4 5.0 4.2 5 2.4 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Winterthur down, Stade Nyonnais across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 950 Challenge League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Winterthur at home: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Stade Nyonnais away: 0.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.33 goals for FC Winterthur, 0.87 for Stade Nyonnais. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~STA 2–2 FCW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 28 Aug

FC WINTERTHUR

DDWWWL1–1 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3

STADE NYONNAIS

LDLLLW0–3 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	10	+17	24
2	Yverdon Sport	10	+7	19
3	FC Winterthur	10	+8	18
4	SC Kriens	10	+5	15
5	Neuchatel Xamax FC	10	−2	15
6	FC Aarau	10	−3	12
7	Rapperswil	10	−4	10
8	FC WIL 1900	10	−6	10
9	Étoile Carouge	10	−6	9
10	Stade Nyonnais	10	−16	5