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FC WIL 1900 v Rapperswil

FC WIL 1900
2–2Full time
Rapperswil

Challenge League · FRI 23 OCT · Lidl Arena

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06
FC WIL 1900 2–2 Rapperswil FC WIL 1900 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC WIL 1900 win43%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.846
The market’s Brier score0.864

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 35 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC WIL 1900 win at 43%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: FC WIL 1900 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF FC WIL 1900 v Rapperswil
  4. 10′Rapperswil ahead on 10′ through S. Diarrassouba. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–20–58
  5. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' FC WIL 1900 0–1 Rapperswil · S. Diarrassouba
  6. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' FC WIL 1900 win: 43% at kick-off, 22% now
  7. 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Rapperswil win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was FC WIL 1900 win 42%)
  8. 11′We said FC WIL 1900 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–20–58
  9. 12′SUBSTITUTION · 11' Rapperswil · On: A. Charveys · Off: V. Hamdiu
  10. 22′We said FC WIL 1900 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–59
  11. 28′T. Staubli scores for FC WIL 1900 on 28′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 40–30–30
  12. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' FC WIL 1900 1–1 Rapperswil · T. Staubli
  13. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' FC WIL 1900 win: 43% at kick-off, 40% now
  14. 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' FC WIL 1900 win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Rapperswil win 60%)
  15. 44′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 37–35–29
  16. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' R. Pousa · Rapperswil
  17. 45′HALF-TIME FC WIL 1900 1–1 Rapperswil
  18. 46′SECOND HALF FC WIL 1900 1–1 Rapperswil
  19. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was FC WIL 1900 win 36%)
  20. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' FC WIL 1900 win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
  21. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Rapperswil · On: A. Bakayoko · Off: R. Pousa
  22. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Rapperswil · On: I. Beka · Off: M. Deme
  23. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Rapperswil · On: R. Bobadilla · Off: S. Diarrassouba
  24. 60′We said FC WIL 1900 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–45–25
  25. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' X. Aliu · FC WIL 1900
  26. 63′We said FC WIL 1900 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–47–24
  27. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' I. Beka · Rapperswil
  28. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC WIL 1900 · On: L. Breedijk · Off: X. Aliu
  29. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC WIL 1900 · On: Y. Allou · Off: M. Diarra
  30. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' L. Schreiber · FC WIL 1900
  31. 71′70′: T. Staubli on the scoresheet for FC WIL 1900, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  32. 71′We said FC WIL 1900 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  33. 71′⚽ GOAL · 70' FC WIL 1900 2–1 Rapperswil · T. Staubli
  34. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' FC WIL 1900 win: 43% at kick-off, 80% now
  35. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' FC WIL 1900 win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 55%)
  36. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' FC WIL 1900 win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
  37. 77′We said FC WIL 1900 at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  38. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Rapperswil · On: D. Muzzi · Off: N. Mupemba
  39. 78′Rapperswil level it on 77′ through Y. Ryter. 2–2. 2–2 · 18–68–15
  40. 78′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 18–68–15
  41. 78′⚽ GOAL · 77' FC WIL 1900 2–2 Rapperswil · Y. Ryter
  42. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' FC WIL 1900 win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
  43. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 68% (was FC WIL 1900 win 85%)
  44. 81′We said FC WIL 1900 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–74–12
  45. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' FC WIL 1900 win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
  46. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC WIL 1900 · On: D. Jacovic · Off: N. Rupp
  47. 85′We said FC WIL 1900 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–83–8
  48. 92′We said FC WIL 1900 at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
  49. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' FC WIL 1900 · On: P. Weber · Off: T. Staubli
  50. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' FC WIL 1900 · On: B. Stillhart · Off: O. Bunjaku
  51. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' FC WIL 1900 win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  52. FTFULL TIME FC WIL 1900 2–2 Rapperswil
  53. FTFC WIL 1900 2–2 Rapperswil · FC WIL 1900 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC WIL 1900 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC WIL 1900 43%, draw 25%, Rapperswil 32%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on FC WIL 1900 v RapperswilBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FC WIL 1900 win43%
Draw25%
Rapperswil win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueLidl Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC WIL 1900

Rapperswil

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Schweizer Cup

Last match: 16 Oct · Schweizer Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Rapperswil10−410
8FC WIL 190010−610

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc wil 1900 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
43% The market45%
Us43%
Market45%

We make FC WIL 1900 a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FC WIL 1900 v Rapperswil1.78 – 1.50
Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 28 AugW1 D4 L1 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 10 v 108 v 7
The market · FC WIL 1900 win45% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 18:18
Our probability · FC WIL 1900 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC WIL 1900 win43%45%−2
Draw25%25%0
Rapperswil win32%30%+2
Over 2.5 goals63%63%0
Both teams to score65%65%0
Over 1.5 goals85%82%+3
Over 3.5 goals41%43%−2
FC WIL 1900 or draw68%70%−2
FC WIL 1900 clean sheet23%––
Rapperswil clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%
0123450 5.1 4.5 4.3 2.1 1 5.6 11.2 7.5 3.7 2 6.0 8.8 6.6 3.3 3 3.5 5.2 3.9 4 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FC WIL 1900 down, Rapperswil across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.53 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsRAP 4–5 FCW · RAP 2–0 FCW · FCW 0–2 RAP · RAP 1–2 FCW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 28 Aug

FC WIL 1900

DDDLWD1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 5–0 · 1–1

RAPPERSWIL

LDLWWL1–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Stade Lausanne-Ouchy10+1724
2Yverdon Sport10+719
3FC Winterthur10+818
4SC Kriens10+515
5Neuchatel Xamax FC10−215
6FC Aarau10−312
7Rapperswil10−410
8FC WIL 190010−610
9Étoile Carouge10−69
10Stade Nyonnais10−165

The competition's standings before kick-off.