FC Aarau v Étoile Carouge

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Aarau win at 52%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: FC Aarau 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
3. 1′KICK-OFF FC Aarau v Étoile Carouge
4. 3′H. Koide scores for FC Aarau on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–13–9
5. 3′We said FC Aarau at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–13–9
6. 3′⚽ GOAL · 2' FC Aarau 1–0 Étoile Carouge · H. Koide
7. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' FC Aarau win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
8. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' L. Essiena · Étoile Carouge
9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
10. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' B. Senyurt · FC Aarau
11. 45′HALF-TIME FC Aarau 1–0 Étoile Carouge
12. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Aarau · On: L. Obexer · Off: B. Senyurt
13. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Étoile Carouge · On: O. Correia · Off: T. Escorza
14. 46′SECOND HALF FC Aarau 1–0 Étoile Carouge
15. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' FC Aarau · On: A. Beka Beka · Off: H. Koide
16. 56′We said FC Aarau at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
17. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' I. Aliu · FC Aarau
18. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' FC Aarau win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
19. 66′65′: M. Holcbecher on the scoresheet for Étoile Carouge. 1–0 · 82–15–3
20. 66′We said FC Aarau at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–52–18
21. 66′⚽ GOAL · 65' FC Aarau 1–1 Étoile Carouge · M. Holcbecher
22. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' FC Aarau win: 52% at kick-off, 31% now
23. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was FC Aarau win 82%)
24. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Ricardo Alves · Étoile Carouge
25. 69′We said FC Aarau at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–55–16
26. 74′We said FC Aarau at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–14
27. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Aarau · On: K. Ndau · Off: I. Aliu
28. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' FC Aarau win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
29. 78′We said FC Aarau at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–69–12
30. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Étoile Carouge · On: M. El Jaouhari · Off: M. Holcbecher
31. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Étoile Carouge · On: T. Nunez · Off: S. Bossiwa
32. 82′We said FC Aarau at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–9
33. 82′Étoile Carouge ahead on 82′ through O. Correia. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–13–86
34. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' FC Aarau 1–2 Étoile Carouge · O. Correia
35. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' FC Aarau win: 52% at kick-off, 1% now
36. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Étoile Carouge win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 78%)
37. 83′We said FC Aarau at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–12–88
38. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Aarau · On: E. Jordan · Off: M. Guindo
39. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Aarau · On: A. Bizzarri · Off: M. Dickenmann
40. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Étoile Carouge · On: G. Zrankeon · Off: Ricardo Alves
41. FTFULL TIME FC Aarau 1–2 Étoile Carouge
42. FTFC Aarau 1–2 Étoile Carouge · FC Aarau win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.