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Étoile Carouge v Yverdon Sport

Étoile Carouge

0–2Full time

Yverdon Sport

Challenge League · FRI 9 OCT · Stade de la Fontenette

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:00

Étoile Carouge 0–2 Yverdon Sport YVERDON SPORT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yverdon Sport win~~42%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.501

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.393

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yverdon Sport win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Yverdon Sport was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 32–25–43
1′KICK-OFF Étoile Carouge v Yverdon Sport
45′HALF-TIME Étoile Carouge 0–0 Yverdon Sport
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yverdon Sport · On: V. Tasar · Off: V. Fazliu
45′SECOND HALF Étoile Carouge 0–0 Yverdon Sport
53′🟨 YELLOW · 54' L. Essiena · Étoile Carouge
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Yverdon Sport · On: B. Toma · Off: H. Sessolo
59′⚽ GOAL · 60' Étoile Carouge 0–0 Yverdon Sport · J. Okita
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Étoile Carouge 0–1 Yverdon Sport · J. Okita
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Étoile Carouge · On: Ricardo Alves · Off: L. Essiena
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Étoile Carouge · On: V. Felder · Off: N. Boulkous
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Yverdon Sport · On: J. Augustin · Off: S. Demhasaj
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Yverdon Sport · On: J. Mayorga · Off: J. Okita
72′🟨 YELLOW · 73' M. El Jaouhari · Étoile Carouge
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' L. Pos · Yverdon Sport
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Étoile Carouge · On: O. Sene · Off: M. El Jaouhari
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Étoile Carouge · On: F. Hoxha · Off: M. Tsoungui
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Étoile Carouge 0–2 Yverdon Sport · J. Okita
77′⚽ GOAL · 78' Étoile Carouge 0–2 Yverdon Sport · B. Toma
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Yverdon Sport · On: M. Kanoute · Off: E. Pasche
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Étoile Carouge · On: I. Strohbach · Off: G. Zrankeon
FTFULL TIME Étoile Carouge 0–2 Yverdon Sport
FTÉtoile Carouge 0–2 Yverdon Sport · Yverdon Sport win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Étoile Carouge win31%

Draw27%

Yverdon Sport win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:15

Venue · Stade de la Fontenette

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Étoile Carouge

Formation not confirmed

23 L. Huwiler

78 N. Boulkous

32 R. Kadima

22 G. Zrankeon

99 M. Tsoungui

88 L. Essiena

6 M. El Jaouhari

10 B. Caslei

26 S. Bossiwa

76 Itaitinga

77 T. Escorza

Coach · Pedro Nogueira

Substitutes

1 · M. Diallo

4 · I. Strohbach

25 · V. Felder

3 · F. Hoxha

33 · L. Zuka

24 · M. Dubosson

2 · D. Neves

8 · Ricardo Alves

17 · O. Sene

Yverdon Sport

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Enzler

32 A. Sauthier

5 J. Gnakpa

25 L. Pos

18 V. Kongsro

10 V. Fazliu

4 O. Doumbia

19 H. Sessolo

11 E. Pasche

9 S. Demhasaj

77 J. Okita

Coach · Martin Andermatt

Substitutes

16 · M. Rouiller

23 · L. Bittarelli

71 · G. Richard

24 · B. Toma

20 · V. Tasar

26 · R. Golliard

7 · M. Kanoute

17 · J. Augustin

14 · J. Mayorga

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Étoile Carouge

Formation not confirmed

23 L. Huwiler

78 N. Boulkous

32 R. Kadima

22 G. Zrankeon

99 M. Tsoungui

88 L. Essiena

6 M. El Jaouhari

10 B. Caslei

26 S. Bossiwa

76 Itaitinga

77 T. Escorza

Coach · Pedro Nogueira

Substitutes

1 · M. Diallo

4 · I. Strohbach

25 · V. Felder

3 · F. Hoxha

33 · L. Zuka

24 · M. Dubosson

2 · D. Neves

8 · Ricardo Alves

17 · O. Sene

Yverdon Sport

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Enzler

32 A. Sauthier

5 J. Gnakpa

25 L. Pos

18 V. Kongsro

10 V. Fazliu

4 O. Doumbia

19 H. Sessolo

11 E. Pasche

9 S. Demhasaj

77 J. Okita

Coach · Martin Andermatt

Substitutes

16 · M. Rouiller

23 · L. Bittarelli

71 · G. Richard

24 · B. Toma

20 · V. Tasar

26 · R. Golliard

7 · M. Kanoute

17 · J. Augustin

14 · J. Mayorga

Our number · yverdon sport winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

42% The market49%

Us42%

~~Market~~49%

We make Yverdon Sport a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · yverdon sport win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Étoile Carouge win	31%	27%	+4
Draw	27%	25%	+3
Yverdon Sport win	42%	49%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	55%	61%	−6
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	40%	−8
Étoile Carouge or draw	58%	51%	+7
Étoile Carouge clean sheet	21%	–	–
Yverdon Sport clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.1 7.5 6.9 3.7 1 6.0 12.7 8.9 4.7 2 4.8 7.5 5.8 3.1 3 2.1 3.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Étoile Carouge down, Yverdon Sport across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 945 Challenge League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Étoile Carouge at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Yverdon Sport away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Étoile Carouge, 1.57 for Yverdon Sport. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~YVE 1–1 ETO · YVE 3–5 ETO · ETO 2–2 YVE · YVE 2–0 ETO

Form · last six in Challenge League

ÉTOILE CAROUGE

DWLDLL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4

YVERDON SPORT

WDWWLD2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	9	+14	21
2	FC Winterthur	9	+11	18
3	Yverdon Sport	9	+5	16
4	SC Kriens	9	+5	14
5	FC Aarau	9	−2	12
6	Neuchatel Xamax FC	9	−5	12
7	Rapperswil	9	−1	10
8	Étoile Carouge	9	−4	9
9	FC WIL 1900	9	−6	9
10	Stade Nyonnais	9	−17	2