Étoile Carouge v SC Kriens prediction · Challenge League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Étoile CarougeDrawSC Kriens

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Étoile Carouge 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Étoile Carouge are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Étoile Carouge 43%, draw 28%, SC Kriens 29%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Étoile Carouge v SC KriensBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Étoile Carouge win43%

Draw28%

SC Kriens win29%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:15

RoundMatchday 12

VenueStade de la Fontenette

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Étoile Carouge

SC Kriens

6Days since last match21

Last match: 24 Oct · the Swiss Challenge League

Last match: 9 Oct · the Swiss Challenge League

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	SC Kriens	10	+5	15
9	Étoile Carouge	10	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · étoile carouge winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Étoile Carouge a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Étoile Carouge v SC Kriens~~1.56 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 15~~9 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Étoile Carouge win	43%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
SC Kriens win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Étoile Carouge or draw	71%	–	–
Étoile Carouge clean sheet	30%	–	–
SC Kriens clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 7.9 6.2 4.8 2.0 1 8.1 13.0 7.1 3.0 2 7.4 8.8 5.4 2.3 3 3.9 4.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Étoile Carouge down, SC Kriens across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 953 Challenge League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenge League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.4% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Étoile Carouge at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). SC Kriens away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Étoile Carouge, 1.23 for SC Kriens. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SCK 4–1 ETO · SCK 1–3 ETO · ETO 4–0 SCK · SCK 2–0 ETO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Challenge League this season · since 28 Aug

ÉTOILE CAROUGE

LDLLLW0–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 2–1

SC KRIENS

WDLDWD3–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	11	+17	25
2	FC Winterthur	11	+12	21
3	Yverdon Sport	10	+7	19
4	Neuchatel Xamax FC	11	−2	16
5	SC Kriens	10	+5	15
6	FC Aarau	10	−3	12
7	Rapperswil	11	−4	11
8	FC WIL 1900	11	−6	11
9	Étoile Carouge	10	−6	9
10	Stade Nyonnais	11	−20	5