Servette Chênois W v Luzern W prediction · AXA Women’s Super League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Servette Chênois W 4–1 Luzern W SERVETTE CHÊNOIS W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Servette Chênois W win~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.054

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Servette Chênois W win at 82%.
1′Much as we predicted: Servette Chênois W was 82% before kick-off and our model makes it 84% now. 0–0 · 84–11–5
1′KICK-OFF Servette Chênois W v Luzern W
17′Servette Chênois W find the net on 17′. 1–0. 1–0 · 94–5–1
17′We published Servette Chênois W at 82%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–0 · 94–5–1
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Servette Chênois W 1–0 Luzern W
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Servette Chênois W win: 82% at kick-off, 94% now
22′Servette Chênois W ahead on 16′ through G. Karchouni. 1–0. 1–0 · 93–5–1
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 93–6–1
32′A goal for Servette Chênois W on 32′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Servette Chênois W 2–0 Luzern W
33′We published Servette Chênois W at 82%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Servette Chênois W 2–0 Luzern W
46′M. Cardia scores for Servette Chênois W on 31′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
46′SECOND HALF Servette Chênois W 2–0 Luzern W
58′Luzern W score on 58′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 92–7–1
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Servette Chênois W 2–1 Luzern W
84′Servette Chênois W find the net on 83′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
84′We published Servette Chênois W at 82%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
84′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Servette Chênois W 3–1 Luzern W
85′A goal for Servette Chênois W on 85′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
85′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Servette Chênois W 4–1 Luzern W
88′M. Sobal scores for Servette Chênois W on 84′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Servette Chênois W 4–1 Luzern W
FTServette Chênois W 4–1 Luzern W · Servette Chênois W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Servette Chênois W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Servette Chênois W 82%, draw 13%, Luzern W 6%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Servette Chênois W v Luzern WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Servette Chênois W win82%

Draw13%

Luzern W win6%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStade de la Fontenette

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Servette Chênois W

Luzern W

12Days since last match13

Last match: 4 Oct · AXA Women’s Super League

Last match: 3 Oct · AXA Women’s Super League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · servette chênois w winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

82% The market–

Us82%

We make Servette Chênois W an 82% chance to win. The model expects 3.0–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Servette Chênois W v Luzern W~~3.03 – 0.67

~~Form · last six in AXA Women’s Super League this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 11~~1 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Servette Chênois W win	82%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Luzern W win	6%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Servette Chênois W or draw	94%	–	–
Servette Chênois W clean sheet	52%	–	–
Luzern W clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.2%

0123450 3.6 1 7.2 5.9 2 11.2 7.3 2.6 3 10.9 7.0 2.5 4 8.3 5.2 5 5.2 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Servette Chênois W down, Luzern W across0–5 goals a side shown (90.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 601 AXA Women’s Super League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: AXA Women’s Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.0% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Servette Chênois W at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Luzern W away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.03 goals for Servette Chênois W, 0.67 for Luzern W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SER 3–0 LUZ · LUZ 0–4 SER · SER 1–1 LUZ · LUZ 0–2 SER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in AXA Women’s Super League this season · since 28 Aug

SERVETTE CHÊNOIS W

WWWWDW2–1 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–0

LUZERN W

WWWDDL3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Servette Chênois W	8	+10	19
2	Grasshopper W	8	+15	17
3	Zürich W	8	+11	15
4	Young Boys W	8	+4	15
5	Basel W	8	+2	12
6	Luzern W	8	+2	11
7	Yverdon W	8	−2	8
8	Rapperswil Jona W	8	−5	8
9	St. Gallen W	8	−14	4
10	Aarau W	8	−23	1