Luzern W v Aarau W prediction · AXA Women’s Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Luzern WDrawAarau W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Luzern W 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Luzern W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Luzern W 53%, draw 23%, Aarau W 24%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Luzern W v Aarau WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Luzern W win53%

Draw23%

Aarau W win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadion Allmend

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Luzern W

Aarau W

15Days since last match14

Last match: 16 Oct · AXA Women’s Super League

Last match: 17 Oct · AXA Women’s Super League

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Luzern W	9	−1	11
10	Aarau W	9	−21	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · luzern w winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Luzern W a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Luzern W v Aarau W~~2.08 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in AXA Women’s Super League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 11 v 4~~6 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Luzern W win	53%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Aarau W win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Luzern W or draw	76%	–	–
Luzern W clean sheet	27%	–	–
Aarau W clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.8 3.6 3.1 1 6.0 10.1 6.0 2.7 2 7.1 9.0 6.0 2.7 3 4.9 6.2 4.1 4 2.6 3.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Luzern W down, Aarau W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 606 AXA Women’s Super League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: AXA Women’s Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.3% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Luzern W at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Aarau W away: 1.00 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Luzern W, 1.33 for Aarau W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AAR 0–1 LUZ · LUZ 2–3 AAR · AAR 1–1 LUZ · AAR 4–1 LUZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in AXA Women’s Super League this season · since 5 Sept

LUZERN W

WWDDLL1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–4

AARAU W

LDLLLW0–1 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 2–5 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Servette Chênois W	9	+13	22
2	Zürich W	9	+13	18
3	Young Boys W	9	+5	18
4	Grasshopper W	9	+14	17
5	Basel W	9	0	12
6	Luzern W	9	−1	11
7	Rapperswil Jona W	9	−4	11
8	Yverdon W	9	−3	8
9	St. Gallen W	9	−16	4
10	Aarau W	9	−21	4