Aarau W v Basel W prediction · AXA Women’s Super League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Aarau W 3–1 Basel W BASEL W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Basel W win~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.385

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Basel W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aarau W 9%, draw 18%, Basel W 72%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Aarau W v Basel WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Aarau W win9%

Draw18%

Basel W win72%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aarau W

Basel W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · AXA Women’s Super League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Basel W	8	+2	12
10	Aarau W	8	−23	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · basel w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

72% The market–

Us72%

We make Basel W a 72% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–2.4, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aarau W v Basel W~~0.71 – 2.39

~~Form · last six in AXA Women’s Super League this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 12~~10 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aarau W win	9%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Basel W win	72%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Aarau W or draw	28%	–	–
Aarau W clean sheet	10%	–	–
Basel W clean sheet	50%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 12.6%

0123450 6.0 10.1 12.6 9.9 6.0 3.11 2.5 8.6 8.6 6.6 4.0 2 2.8 3.2 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aarau W down, Basel W across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 603 AXA Women’s Super League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: AXA Women’s Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aarau W at home: 0.50 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Basel W away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.71 goals for Aarau W, 2.39 for Basel W. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AAR 0–1 BAS · BAS 2–0 AAR · BAS 4–0 AAR · AAR 1–2 BAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in AXA Women’s Super League this season · since 29 Aug

AARAU W

LLDLLL0–8 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 2–5

BASEL W

LWDDDL1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Servette Chênois W	9	+13	22
2	Zürich W	9	+13	18
3	Grasshopper W	8	+15	17
4	Young Boys W	8	+4	15
5	Basel W	8	+2	12
6	Luzern W	9	−1	11
7	Yverdon W	8	−2	8
8	Rapperswil Jona W	8	−5	8
9	St. Gallen W	9	−16	4
10	Aarau W	8	−23	1