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Zürich II v Breitenrain

Zürich II

2–2Full time

Breitenrain

1. Liga Promotion · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Zürich II 2–2 Breitenrain ZÜRICH II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zürich II win~~46%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.909

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.849

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zürich II win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF Zürich II v Breitenrain
3′Much as we predicted: Zürich II was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–23–31
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Zürich II 0–1 Breitenrain
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Zürich II 1–1 Breitenrain
45′HALF-TIME Zürich II 1–1 Breitenrain
46′SECOND HALF Zürich II 1–1 Breitenrain
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Zürich II 1–2 Breitenrain
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Zürich II 2–2 Breitenrain
FTFULL TIME Zürich II 2–2 Breitenrain
FTZürich II 2–2 Breitenrain · Zürich II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Zürich II win46%

Draw23%

Breitenrain win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zürich ii winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

46% The market44%

Us46%

~~Market~~44%

We make Zürich II a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · zürich ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zürich II win	46%	44%	+2
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Breitenrain win	32%	31%	0
Over 2.5 goals	63%	62%	+1
Both teams to score	64%	64%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	80%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
Zürich II or draw	68%	69%	0
Zürich II clean sheet	23%	–	–
Breitenrain clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.9 5.6 4.1 2.0 1 6.9 9.9 7.2 3.6 2 6.2 8.9 6.5 3.2 3 3.8 5.4 3.9 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zürich II down, Breitenrain across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,580 1. Liga Promotion matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Liga Promotion matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.6% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 3.45 goals a meeting; 9 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zürich II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Breitenrain away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Zürich II, 1.47 for Breitenrain. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.45

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 11

~~Both scored~~8 of 11

~~Last meetings~~BRE 3–1 ZUR · ZUR 1–0 BRE · ZUR 1–2 BRE · BRE 3–1 ZUR

Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion

ZÜRICH II

WLLDLW3–1 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–0

BREITENRAIN

LWLLDW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Biel-Bienne	10	+13	25
2	FC Schaffhausen	10	+8	22
3	Bulle	10	+8	20
4	Paradiso	10	+11	19
5	Cham	10	+3	19
6	Grand-Saconnex	10	+5	18
7	YF Juventus	10	0	16
8	Basel II	10	0	15
9	Zürich II	10	0	14
10	Breitenrain	10	−2	14
11	Amical Saint-Prex	10	−8	13
12	Kreuzlingen	10	0	12
13	Brühl	10	−3	11
14	Young Boys II	10	−7	11
15	Lugano II	10	−7	9
16	Bavois	10	−2	8
17	Luzern II	10	−4	7
18	Bellinzona	10	−15	5