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Model 1.2

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Paradiso v Young Boys II

Paradiso
2–2Full time
Young Boys II

1. Liga Promotion · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Paradiso 2–2 Young Boys II PARADISO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Paradiso win47%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.895
The market’s Brier score0.978

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Paradiso win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Paradiso 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Paradiso v Young Boys II
  4. 2′PENALTY MISSED · 2' Paradiso
  5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Paradiso 1–0 Young Boys II
  6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Paradiso win: 47% at kick-off, 71% now
  7. 7′A goal for Paradiso on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–12
  8. 7′We said Paradiso at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–17–12
  9. 14′Little has changed for our model: Paradiso 47% before kick-off, 45% now. 1–1 · 45–26–29
  10. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Paradiso 1–1 Young Boys II
  11. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Paradiso win: 47% at kick-off, 45% now
  12. 15′Young Boys II score on 15′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 45–26–29
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Paradiso 1–1 Young Boys II
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Paradiso 1–1 Young Boys II
  15. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Paradiso win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  16. 48′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 37–38–25
  17. 52′We said Paradiso at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–40–24
  18. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Paradiso win 35%)
  19. 53′We said Paradiso at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–2 · 11–24–65
  20. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Paradiso 1–2 Young Boys II
  21. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Paradiso win: 47% at kick-off, 11% now
  22. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Young Boys II win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 24%)
  23. 54′Young Boys II find the net on 54′. 1–2. 1–2 · 10–24–65
  24. 54′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 35–42–24
  25. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Paradiso 2–2 Young Boys II
  26. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Paradiso win: 47% at kick-off, 35% now
  27. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Young Boys II win 24%)
  28. 55′We said Paradiso at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–42–24
  29. 56′A goal for Paradiso on 55′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 34–43–23
  30. 64′We said Paradiso at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–50–21
  31. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Paradiso 3–2 Young Boys II
  32. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Paradiso win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
  33. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Paradiso win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
  34. 65′We said Paradiso at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 3–2 · 80–17–3
  35. 65′A goal for Paradiso on 65′. 2–2 · 29–51–20
  36. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Paradiso win: 47% at kick-off, 80% now
  37. 65′GOAL DISALLOWED · 65' Paradiso
  38. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Paradiso win: 47% at kick-off, 29% now
  39. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Paradiso win 29%)
  40. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Paradiso win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  41. 71′We said Paradiso at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–58–17
  42. 77′We said Paradiso at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–68–14
  43. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Paradiso win: 47% at kick-off, 16% now
  44. 85′We said Paradiso at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–84–7
  45. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Paradiso win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  46. 92′We said Paradiso at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–3
  47. 93′2–2 at the end. Our 47% on Paradiso misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
  48. FTFULL TIME Paradiso 2–2 Young Boys II
  49. FTParadiso 2–2 Young Boys II · Paradiso win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Paradiso are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Paradiso 47%, draw 23%, Young Boys II 29%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Paradiso v Young Boys IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Paradiso win47%
Draw23%
Young Boys II win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paradiso

Young Boys II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Paradiso11+1120
14Young Boys II11−911

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paradiso winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market57%
Us47%
Market57%

We make Paradiso a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Paradiso v Young Boys II1.72 – 1.30
Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion this season · since 5 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 20 v 115 v 14
The market · Paradiso win57% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 14:16
Our probability · Paradiso win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Paradiso win47%57%−10
Draw23%22%+1
Young Boys II win29%21%+8
Over 2.5 goals58%67%−9
Both teams to score59%65%−6
Over 1.5 goals80%81%−1
Over 3.5 goals36%48%−12
Paradiso or draw71%79%−8
Paradiso clean sheet28%––
Young Boys II clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%
0123450 5.0 6.5 4.2 1 8.5 10.8 7.0 3.1 2 7.2 9.2 5.9 2.6 3 4.1 5.3 3.4 4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Paradiso down, Young Boys II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 6
Both scored4 of 6
Last meetingsYOU 1–1 PAR · PAR 2–4 YOU · PAR 1–1 YOU · YOU 1–1 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion this season · since 5 Sept

PARADISO

WWLWWD4–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

YOUNG BOYS II

WWDLLL4–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–6 · 1–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Biel-Bienne11+1326
2FC Schaffhausen11+1625
3Cham11+522
4Bulle11+821
5Paradiso11+1120
6YF Juventus11+219
7Grand-Saconnex11+418
8Basel II11016
9Amical Saint-Prex11−616
10Kreuzlingen11+115
11Zürich II11015
12Breitenrain11−215
13Brühl11−214
14Young Boys II11−911
15Lugano II11−89
16Bavois11−48
17Luzern II11−127
18Bellinzona11−175

The competition's standings before kick-off.