Luzern II v Paradiso prediction · 1. Liga Promotion

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Luzern II 1–2 Paradiso LUZERN II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Luzern II win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.593

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Luzern II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Luzern II 40%, draw 22%, Paradiso 38%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Luzern II v ParadisoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Luzern II win40%

Draw22%

Paradiso win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Luzern II

Paradiso

14Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Paradiso	12	+11	21
18	Luzern II	11	−12	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · luzern ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Luzern II a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Luzern II v Paradiso~~1.79 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 21~~18 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Luzern II win	40%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Paradiso win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Luzern II or draw	62%	–	–
Luzern II clean sheet	18%	–	–
Paradiso clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.0 5.2 4.5 2.6 1 5.4 9.0 7.8 4.5 2.0 2 4.7 8.0 6.9 4.0 3 2.8 4.8 4.1 2.4 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Luzern II down, Paradiso across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,596 1. Liga Promotion matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Promotion matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.0% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Luzern II at home: 1.00 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Paradiso away: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Luzern II, 1.74 for Paradiso. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LUZ 2–2 PAR · PAR 7–5 LUZ · PAR 2–2 LUZ · LUZ 0–1 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion this season · since 5 Sept

LUZERN II

LLWLLL0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 0–8

PARADISO

WLWWDD3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Biel-Bienne	11	+13	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	+16	25
3	Bulle	12	+9	24
4	Cham	11	+5	22
5	Paradiso	12	+11	21
6	Grand-Saconnex	12	+7	21
7	Basel II	12	+2	19
8	Zürich II	12	+1	18
9	Breitenrain	12	+1	18
10	YF Juventus	12	−3	16
11	Amical Saint-Prex	12	−9	16
12	Kreuzlingen	12	0	15
13	Brühl	12	−4	14
14	Lugano II	12	−7	12
15	Young Boys II	12	−9	12
16	Bavois	12	−6	8
17	Bellinzona	12	−15	8
18	Luzern II	11	−12	7