Lugano II v Kreuzlingen prediction · 1. Liga Promotion

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Lugano II 2–3 Kreuzlingen LUGANO II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lugano II win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.642

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lugano II win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lugano II was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–35
1′KICK-OFF Lugano II v Kreuzlingen
2′Much as we predicted: Lugano II was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–24–35
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Lugano II 1–0 Kreuzlingen
17′14′ and it is 1–0: Lugano II have scored. 1–0 · 66–20–14
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Lugano II win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Lugano II win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Lugano II win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
19′14′ and it is 1–0: Lugano II have scored. 1–0 · 66–20–14
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Lugano II win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Lugano II win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
34′We published Lugano II at 41%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–21–11
35′We published Lugano II at 41%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–21–11
38′⚽ GOAL · 14' Lugano II 1–0 Kreuzlingen · A. Davis
45′We published Lugano II at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
45′HALF-TIME Lugano II 1–0 Kreuzlingen
46′SECOND HALF Lugano II 1–0 Kreuzlingen
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Lugano II win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Lugano II win: 41% at kick-off, 70% now
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Lugano II 1–1 Kreuzlingen
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Lugano II 1–2 Kreuzlingen
72′⚽ GOAL · 14' Lugano II 1–2 Kreuzlingen · A. Davis
72′⚽ GOAL · 53' Lugano II 1–2 Kreuzlingen · L. Nay
72′⚽ GOAL · 61' Lugano II 1–2 Kreuzlingen · M. Boulachab
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Lugano II 1–3 Kreuzlingen
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Lugano II 2–3 Kreuzlingen
FTFULL TIME Lugano II 2–3 Kreuzlingen
FTLugano II 2–3 Kreuzlingen · Lugano II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lugano II win41%

Draw24%

Kreuzlingen win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lugano II

Kreuzlingen

8Days since last match11

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Kreuzlingen	10	0	12
15	Lugano II	10	−7	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lugano ii winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Lugano II a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lugano ii win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lugano II win	41%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Kreuzlingen win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Lugano II or draw	65%	–	–
Lugano II clean sheet	23%	–	–
Kreuzlingen clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.8 6.9 5.0 2.5 1 7.5 10.7 7.8 3.9 2 6.0 8.5 6.2 3.1 3 3.2 4.6 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lugano II down, Kreuzlingen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,587 1. Liga Promotion matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Liga Promotion matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lugano II at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kreuzlingen away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Lugano II, 1.47 for Kreuzlingen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KRE 1–1 LUG · LUG 1–0 KRE

Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion

LUGANO II

WLWLLL3–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

KREUZLINGEN

WLLDDW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Schaffhausen	11	+16	25
2	Biel-Bienne	10	+13	25
3	Cham	11	+5	22
4	Bulle	11	+8	21
5	Paradiso	11	+11	20
6	YF Juventus	11	+2	19
7	Grand-Saconnex	11	+4	18
8	Amical Saint-Prex	11	−6	16
9	Zürich II	11	0	15
10	Basel II	10	0	15
11	Breitenrain	11	−2	15
12	Brühl	11	−2	14
13	Kreuzlingen	10	0	12
14	Young Boys II	11	−9	11
15	Lugano II	10	−7	9
16	Bavois	11	−4	8
17	Luzern II	11	−12	7
18	Bellinzona	11	−17	5