Lugano II v Bellinzona prediction · 1. Liga Promotion

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lugano IIDrawBellinzona

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lugano II 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lugano II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lugano II 45%, draw 23%, Bellinzona 32%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Lugano II v BellinzonaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Lugano II win45%

Draw23%

Bellinzona win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lugano II

Bellinzona

8Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion

Last match: 21 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Lugano II	12	−7	12
17	Bellinzona	12	−15	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lugano ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

45% The market38%

Us45%

~~Market~~38%

We make Lugano II a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lugano II v Bellinzona~~1.69 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 8~~14 v 17

~~The market · Lugano II win~~38% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lugano II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lugano II win	45%	38%	+7
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Bellinzona win	32%	37%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	59%	59%	0
Both teams to score	60%	62%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	39%	−2
Lugano II or draw	68%	63%	+5
Lugano II clean sheet	26%	–	–
Bellinzona clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 4.9 6.6 4.5 2.1 1 8.1 10.6 7.2 3.4 2 6.7 8.8 6.0 2.8 3 3.8 5.0 3.4 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lugano II down, Bellinzona across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,600 1. Liga Promotion matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Promotion matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.3% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Lugano II at home: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bellinzona away: 0.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Lugano II, 1.37 for Bellinzona. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion this season · since 13 Sept

LUGANO II

WLLLLW3–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–1

BELLINZONA

WLDLLW2–1 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Biel-Bienne	11	+13	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	+16	25
3	Bulle	12	+9	24
4	Paradiso	13	+12	24
5	Cham	11	+5	22
6	Grand-Saconnex	12	+7	21
7	Basel II	13	0	19
8	YF Juventus	13	−1	19
9	Amical Saint-Prex	13	−7	19
10	Zürich II	13	−1	18
11	Breitenrain	13	−1	18
12	Brühl	13	−2	17
13	Kreuzlingen	12	0	15
14	Lugano II	12	−7	12
15	Young Boys II	12	−9	12
16	Bavois	12	−6	8
17	Bellinzona	12	−15	8
18	Luzern II	12	−13	7