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Grand-Saconnex v Lugano II
Grand-SaconnexLugano II1. Liga Promotion · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Grand-Saconnex win at 62%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Grand-Saconnex was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–18–20
- 1′KICK-OFF Grand-Saconnex v Lugano II
- 7′Much as we predicted: Grand-Saconnex was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–19–20
- 28′Grand-Saconnex find the net on 28′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
- 28′We published Grand-Saconnex at 62%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
- 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Grand-Saconnex 1–0 Lugano II
- 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Grand-Saconnex win: 62% at kick-off, 79% now
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.9 we expected. 1–0 · 79–14–7
- 45′We published Grand-Saconnex at 62%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–6
- 45′HALF-TIME Grand-Saconnex 1–0 Lugano II
- 46′SECOND HALF Grand-Saconnex 1–0 Lugano II
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Grand-Saconnex win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
- 73′We published Grand-Saconnex at 62%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 81′We published Grand-Saconnex at 62%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 81′A goal for Lugano II on 81′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 20–70–10
- 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Grand-Saconnex 1–1 Lugano II
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Grand-Saconnex win: 62% at kick-off, 20% now
- 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Grand-Saconnex win 20%)
- 82′We said Grand-Saconnex at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–73–9
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Grand-Saconnex win: 62% at kick-off, 18% now
- 84′We said Grand-Saconnex at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–7
- 84′Lugano II score on 84′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–13–86
- 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Grand-Saconnex 1–2 Lugano II
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Grand-Saconnex win: 62% at kick-off, 1% now
- 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Lugano II win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
- 85′We said Grand-Saconnex at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–12–87
- FTFULL TIME Grand-Saconnex 1–2 Lugano II
- FTGrand-Saconnex 1–2 Lugano II · Grand-Saconnex win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassGrand-Saconnex are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Grand-Saconnex 62%, draw 18%, Lugano II 20%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 68%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Grand-Saconnex win62%Lugano II win20%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 12
Match timeline
All events
Grand-SaconnexMINLugano IIEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Grand-Saconnex
Lugano II
Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion
Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grand-Saconnex | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 15 | Lugano II | 11 | −8 | 9 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Grand-Saconnex a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.5–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 61%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand-Saconnex win | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | −1 |
| Lugano II win | 20% | 17% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 64% | +4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | 82% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Grand-Saconnex or draw | 80% | 83% | −3 |
| Grand-Saconnex clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Lugano II clean sheet | 9% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion this season · since 5 Sept
GRAND-SACONNEX
LUGANO II
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Biel-Bienne | 11 | +13 | 26 |
| 2 |  FC Schaffhausen | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 3 |  Cham | 11 | +5 | 22 |
| 4 |  Bulle | 11 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 |  Paradiso | 11 | +11 | 20 |
| 6 |  YF Juventus | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 7 | Grand-Saconnex | 11 | +4 | 18 |
| 8 |  Basel II | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 |  Amical Saint-Prex | 11 | −6 | 16 |
| 10 |  Kreuzlingen | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Zürich II | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 12 |  Breitenrain | 11 | −2 | 15 |
| 13 |  Brühl | 11 | −2 | 14 |
| 14 |  Young Boys II | 11 | −9 | 11 |
| 15 | Lugano II | 11 | −8 | 9 |
| 16 |  Bavois | 11 | −4 | 8 |
| 17 |  Luzern II | 11 | −12 | 7 |
| 18 |  Bellinzona | 11 | −17 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.