Cham v Luzern II prediction · 1. Liga Promotion

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ChamDrawLuzern II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Cham 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cham are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cham 56%, draw 19%, Luzern II 26%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Cham v Luzern IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Cham win56%

Draw19%

Luzern II win26%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cham

Luzern II

11Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Schweizer Cup

Last match: 24 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Cham	11	+5	22
18	Luzern II	11	−12	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cham winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Cham a 56% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.7, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cham v Luzern II~~2.52 – 1.68

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 22 v 7~~4 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cham win	56%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Luzern II win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	–	–
Cham or draw	74%	–	–
Cham clean sheet	19%	–	–
Luzern II clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.7 2.2 1 3.9 6.4 5.3 3.0 2 4.8 7.9 6.5 3.7 3 4.0 6.5 5.4 3.0 4 2.5 4.1 3.4 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Cham down, Luzern II across0–5 goals a side shown (94.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,596 1. Liga Promotion matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Promotion matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.0% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.25 goals a meeting; 8 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cham at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Luzern II away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.52 goals for Cham, 1.68 for Luzern II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.25

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 8

~~Both scored~~8 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LUZ 3–3 CHA · CHA 3–1 LUZ · LUZ 1–3 CHA · CHA 3–4 LUZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion this season · since 5 Sept

CHAM

WLWWLW4–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 3–1

LUZERN II

LWLLLL0–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 0–8 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Biel-Bienne	11	+13	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	+16	25
3	Bulle	12	+9	24
4	Cham	11	+5	22
5	Paradiso	12	+11	21
6	Grand-Saconnex	12	+7	21
7	Basel II	12	+2	19
8	Zürich II	12	+1	18
9	Breitenrain	12	+1	18
10	YF Juventus	12	−3	16
11	Amical Saint-Prex	12	−9	16
12	Kreuzlingen	12	0	15
13	Brühl	12	−4	14
14	Lugano II	12	−7	12
15	Young Boys II	12	−9	12
16	Bavois	12	−6	8
17	Bellinzona	12	−15	8
18	Luzern II	11	−12	7