Brühl v Zürich II prediction · 1. Liga Promotion

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Brühl 3–1 Zürich II BRÜHL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brühl win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.339

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brühl are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brühl 53%, draw 21%, Zürich II 27%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Brühl v Zürich IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Brühl win53%

Draw21%

Zürich II win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brühl

Zürich II

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Zürich II	12	+1	18
13	Brühl	12	−4	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brühl winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Brühl a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brühl v Zürich II~~2.12 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 18~~13 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brühl win

Published at 54%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brühl win	53%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Zürich II win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Brühl or draw	73%	–	–
Brühl clean sheet	24%	–	–
Zürich II clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 2.9 4.2 3.0 1 6.0 8.5 6.2 3.1 2 6.2 8.9 6.5 3.2 3 4.4 6.3 4.6 2.3 4 2.4 3.4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brühl down, Zürich II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,596 1. Liga Promotion matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Promotion matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.0% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brühl at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Zürich II away: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for Brühl, 1.46 for Zürich II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BRU 3–1 ZUR · ZUR 1–4 BRU · BRU 3–0 ZUR · ZUR 6–0 BRU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion this season · since 12 Sept

BRÜHL

DLLLWL1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–2

ZÜRICH II

LDLWDW1–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Biel-Bienne	11	+13	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	+16	25
3	Bulle	12	+9	24
4	Cham	11	+5	22
5	Paradiso	12	+11	21
6	Grand-Saconnex	12	+7	21
7	Basel II	12	+2	19
8	Zürich II	12	+1	18
9	Breitenrain	12	+1	18
10	YF Juventus	12	−3	16
11	Amical Saint-Prex	12	−9	16
12	Kreuzlingen	12	0	15
13	Brühl	12	−4	14
14	Lugano II	12	−7	12
15	Young Boys II	12	−9	12
16	Bavois	12	−6	8
17	Bellinzona	12	−15	8
18	Luzern II	11	−12	7