Biel-Bienne v Basel II prediction · 1. Liga Promotion

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Biel-Bienne 2–2 Basel II BIEL-BIENNE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Biel-Bienne win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.023

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Biel-Bienne win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Biel-Bienne was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–21–21
1′KICK-OFF Biel-Bienne v Basel II
3′Much as we predicted: Biel-Bienne was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–21–21
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Biel-Bienne 1–0 Basel II
40′Biel-Bienne find the net on 38′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Biel-Bienne win: 58% at kick-off, 79% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Biel-Bienne win: 58% at kick-off, 53% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Biel-Bienne win: 58% at kick-off, 53% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Biel-Bienne win: 58% at kick-off, 79% now
42′Biel-Bienne find the net on 38′. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
45′HALF-TIME Biel-Bienne 1–0 Basel II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Biel-Bienne win: 58% at kick-off, 79% now
46′SECOND HALF Biel-Bienne 1–0 Basel II
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Biel-Bienne 2–0 Basel II
50′⚽ GOAL · 38' Biel-Bienne 2–0 Basel II · P. Pululu
50′⚽ GOAL · 47' Biel-Bienne 2–0 Basel II
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Biel-Bienne 1–1 Basel II
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Biel-Bienne 2–1 Basel II
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Biel-Bienne 2–2 Basel II
FTFULL TIME Biel-Bienne 2–2 Basel II
FTBiel-Bienne 2–2 Basel II · Biel-Bienne win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Biel-Bienne win58%

Draw20%

Basel II win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Biel-Bienne

Basel II

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Biel-Bienne	10	+13	25
10	Basel II	10	0	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · biel-bienne winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Biel-Bienne a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Biel-Bienne win	58%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Basel II win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Biel-Bienne or draw	79%	–	–
Biel-Bienne clean sheet	30%	–	–
Basel II clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 4.3 2.6 1 7.5 8.9 5.5 2.3 2 7.9 9.4 5.8 2.4 3 5.6 6.8 4.1 4 3.1 3.7 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Biel-Bienne down, Basel II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,587 1. Liga Promotion matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Liga Promotion matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.9% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 3.36 goals a meeting; 8 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Biel-Bienne at home: 3.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Basel II away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Biel-Bienne, 1.23 for Basel II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.36

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 11

~~Both scored~~8 of 11

~~Last meetings~~BIE 1–2 BAS · BAS 1–3 BIE · BAS 3–0 BIE · BIE 2–2 BAS

Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion

BIEL-BIENNE

DLWWWW1–1 · 2–4 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

BASEL II

WWLLWW3–2 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Schaffhausen	11	+16	25
2	Biel-Bienne	10	+13	25
3	Cham	11	+5	22
4	Bulle	11	+8	21
5	Paradiso	11	+11	20
6	YF Juventus	11	+2	19
7	Grand-Saconnex	11	+4	18
8	Amical Saint-Prex	11	−6	16
9	Zürich II	11	0	15
10	Basel II	10	0	15
11	Breitenrain	11	−2	15
12	Brühl	11	−2	14
13	Kreuzlingen	10	0	12
14	Young Boys II	11	−9	11
15	Lugano II	10	−7	9
16	Bavois	11	−4	8
17	Luzern II	11	−12	7
18	Bellinzona	11	−17	5