Bellinzona v Brühl prediction · 1. Liga Promotion

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 21:00

Bellinzona 2–0 Brühl BRÜHL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brühl win~~52%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.868

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.773

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brühl win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Brühl was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 26–22–52
1′KICK-OFF Bellinzona v Brühl
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Brühl win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
45′HALF-TIME Bellinzona 0–0 Brühl
46′A goal for Bellinzona on 46′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 59–26–16
46′SECOND HALF Bellinzona 0–0 Brühl
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Bellinzona 1–0 Brühl
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Brühl win: 52% at kick-off, 16% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Bellinzona win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Brühl win 41%)
47′We said Brühl at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 59–26–15
49′We said Brühl at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Brühl win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
62′We said Brühl at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
73′We said Brühl at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Brühl win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
82′Bellinzona score on 82′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Bellinzona 2–0 Brühl
FTFULL TIME Bellinzona 2–0 Brühl
FTBellinzona 2–0 Brühl · Brühl win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brühl are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bellinzona 26%, draw 22%, Brühl 52%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Bellinzona v BrühlBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Bellinzona win26%

Draw22%

Brühl win52%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bellinzona

Brühl

11Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Liga Promotion

Last match: 17 Oct · Schweizer Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Brühl	11	−2	14
18	Bellinzona	11	−17	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brühl winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

52% The market45%

Us52%

~~Market~~45%

We make Brühl a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bellinzona v Brühl~~1.29 – 1.94

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 14~~18 v 13

~~The market · Brühl win~~45% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brühl win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bellinzona win	26%	29%	−3
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Brühl win	52%	45%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	62%	61%	+1
Both teams to score	61%	64%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	41%	−1
Bellinzona or draw	48%	55%	−7
Bellinzona clean sheet	15%	–	–
Brühl clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.2 7.8 7.4 4.8 2.4 1 5.3 9.7 9.2 5.9 2.9 2 3.4 6.3 5.9 3.8 3 2.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bellinzona down, Brühl across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,594 1. Liga Promotion matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Promotion matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.3% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bellinzona at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Brühl away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Bellinzona, 1.94 for Brühl. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BRU 0–1 BEL · BEL 2–1 BRU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion this season · since 5 Sept

BELLINZONA

LWLDLL0–4 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–2

BRÜHL

LDLLLW0–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Biel-Bienne	11	+13	26
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	+16	25
3	Cham	11	+5	22
4	Bulle	11	+8	21
5	Paradiso	12	+11	21
6	Grand-Saconnex	12	+7	21
7	Basel II	12	+2	19
8	Zürich II	12	+1	18
9	Breitenrain	12	+1	18
10	YF Juventus	12	−3	16
11	Amical Saint-Prex	12	−9	16
12	Kreuzlingen	11	+1	15
13	Brühl	11	−2	14
14	Lugano II	12	−7	12
15	Young Boys II	12	−9	12
16	Bavois	12	−6	8
17	Luzern II	11	−12	7
18	Bellinzona	11	−17	5