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Bavois v Amical Saint-Prex

Bavois

0–2Full time

Amical Saint-Prex

1. Liga Promotion · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Bavois 0–2 Amical Saint-Prex BAVOIS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bavois win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.869

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bavois win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bavois 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–23–26
1′KICK-OFF Bavois v Amical Saint-Prex
45′HALF-TIME Bavois 0–0 Amical Saint-Prex
47′PENALTY MISSED · 1' E. Avdic · Bavois
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Bavois 0–1 Amical Saint-Prex
47′SECOND HALF Bavois 0–1 Amical Saint-Prex
55′⚽ GOAL · 53' Bavois 0–2 Amical Saint-Prex
FTFULL TIME Bavois 0–2 Amical Saint-Prex
FTBavois 0–2 Amical Saint-Prex · Bavois win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bavois win52%

Draw23%

Amical Saint-Prex win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bavois winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Bavois a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bavois win	52%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Amical Saint-Prex win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Bavois or draw	74%	–	–
Bavois clean sheet	29%	–	–
Amical Saint-Prex clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.7 5.7 3.5 1 8.5 10.3 6.4 2.7 2 7.8 9.4 5.8 2.4 3 4.8 5.8 3.6 4 2.3 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bavois down, Amical Saint-Prex across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,580 1. Liga Promotion matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Liga Promotion matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.6% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Bavois at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Amical Saint-Prex away: 1.20 scored, 3.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Bavois, 1.24 for Amical Saint-Prex. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Promotion

BAVOIS

LWLLLL2–3 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

AMICAL SAINT-PREX

LWLDWL1–4 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Biel-Bienne	10	+13	25
2	FC Schaffhausen	10	+8	22
3	Bulle	10	+8	20
4	Paradiso	10	+11	19
5	Cham	10	+3	19
6	Grand-Saconnex	10	+5	18
7	YF Juventus	10	0	16
8	Basel II	10	0	15
9	Zürich II	10	0	14
10	Breitenrain	10	−2	14
11	Amical Saint-Prex	10	−8	13
12	Kreuzlingen	10	0	12
13	Brühl	10	−3	11
14	Young Boys II	10	−7	11
15	Lugano II	10	−7	9
16	Bavois	10	−2	8
17	Luzern II	10	−4	7
18	Bellinzona	10	−15	5