Winterthur II v Tuggen prediction · 1. Liga Classic

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Winterthur II 1–3 Tuggen TUGGEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tuggen win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.511

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tuggen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Winterthur II 36%, draw 21%, Tuggen 42%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Winterthur II v TuggenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Winterthur II win36%

Draw21%

Tuggen win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Winterthur II

Tuggen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 3

Last match: 17 Oct · Erste Liga Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tuggen	10	+11	21
14	Winterthur II	10	−8	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tuggen winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Tuggen a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Winterthur II v Tuggen~~1.82 – 1.97

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 21~~14 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Winterthur II win	36%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Tuggen win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
Winterthur II or draw	58%	–	–
Winterthur II clean sheet	14%	–	–
Tuggen clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.5 4.4 4.4 2.9 1 4.1 8.2 7.8 5.1 2.6 2 3.8 7.3 7.0 4.6 2.3 3 2.3 4.4 4.3 2.8 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Winterthur II down, Tuggen across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,222 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Winterthur II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tuggen away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Winterthur II, 1.97 for Tuggen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WIN 5–0 TUG · TUG 0–1 WIN · TUG 3–2 WIN · WIN 2–3 TUG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

WINTERTHUR II

LLWLLL0–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–4

TUGGEN

WWLDDD4–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St. Gallen II	10	+5	22
2	Tuggen	10	+11	21
3	Taverne	10	+13	20
4	Thalwil	10	+5	16
5	Baden	10	+4	16
6	Kosova	10	+3	16
7	Collina d'Oro	10	−1	15
8	Dietikon	10	0	14
9	Gossau	10	−4	14
10	Eschen / Mauren	10	−3	12
11	Locarno	10	−1	10
12	Freienbach	10	−4	10
13	Wettswil-Bonstetten	10	−3	9
14	Winterthur II	10	−8	9
15	Mendrisio	10	−4	8
16	Widnau	10	−13	6