Tuggen v Freienbach prediction · 1. Liga Classic

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TuggenDrawFreienbach

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tuggen 68%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tuggen are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tuggen 68%, draw 17%, Freienbach 15%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Tuggen v FreienbachBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Tuggen win68%

Draw17%

Freienbach win15%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tuggen

Freienbach

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · 1. Liga Classic - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tuggen	11	+13	24
13	Freienbach	11	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tuggen winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Tuggen a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tuggen v Freienbach~~2.64 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 24 v 10~~2 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tuggen win	68%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Freienbach win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Tuggen or draw	85%	–	–
Tuggen clean sheet	31%	–	–
Freienbach clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 2.5 2.6 1 5.8 7.0 4.0 2 7.7 8.9 5.2 2.1 3 6.7 7.7 4.5 4 4.4 5.1 3.0 5 2.4 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Tuggen down, Freienbach across0–5 goals a side shown (94.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,230 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tuggen at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Freienbach away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.64 goals for Tuggen, 1.18 for Freienbach. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TUG 5–1 FRE · FRE 3–3 TUG · TUG 3–2 FRE · FRE 0–1 TUG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

TUGGEN

WLDDDW2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 3–1

FREIENBACH

WLWDLL3–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St. Gallen II	11	+6	25
2	Tuggen	11	+13	24
3	Taverne	11	+13	21
4	Baden	11	+10	19
5	Thalwil	11	+6	19
6	Collina d'Oro	11	+1	18
7	Kosova	11	+3	17
8	Dietikon	11	−2	14
9	Gossau	11	−5	14
10	Wettswil-Bonstetten	11	−2	12
11	Eschen / Mauren	11	−4	12
12	Locarno	11	−1	11
13	Freienbach	11	−5	10
14	Mendrisio	11	−4	9
15	Winterthur II	11	−10	9
16	Widnau	11	−19	6