Thalwil v Gossau prediction · 1. Liga Classic

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Thalwil 2–1 Gossau THALWIL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Thalwil win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.273

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Thalwil are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Thalwil 57%, draw 20%, Gossau 22%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Thalwil v GossauBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Thalwil win57%

Draw20%

Gossau win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Thalwil

Gossau

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Erste Liga Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Thalwil	10	+5	16
9	Gossau	10	−4	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · thalwil winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Thalwil a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Thalwil v Gossau~~2.20 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~4 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Thalwil win	57%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Gossau win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Thalwil or draw	78%	–	–
Thalwil clean sheet	28%	–	–
Gossau clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.4 4.0 2.6 1 6.7 8.7 5.5 2.4 2 7.3 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 5.3 6.6 4.3 4 3.0 3.7 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Thalwil down, Gossau across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,222 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Thalwil at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gossau away: 1.00 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for Thalwil, 1.31 for Gossau. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GOS 1–0 THA · THA 3–2 GOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

THALWIL

WDWDDL5–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

GOSSAU

LLWLWW1–4 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 4–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St. Gallen II	10	+5	22
2	Tuggen	10	+11	21
3	Taverne	10	+13	20
4	Thalwil	10	+5	16
5	Baden	10	+4	16
6	Kosova	10	+3	16
7	Collina d'Oro	10	−1	15
8	Dietikon	10	0	14
9	Gossau	10	−4	14
10	Eschen / Mauren	10	−3	12
11	Locarno	10	−1	10
12	Freienbach	10	−4	10
13	Wettswil-Bonstetten	10	−3	9
14	Winterthur II	10	−8	9
15	Mendrisio	10	−4	8
16	Widnau	10	−13	6