Mendrisio v Locarno prediction · 1. Liga Classic

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Mendrisio 0–0 Locarno MENDRISIO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mendrisio win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.823

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mendrisio are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mendrisio 44%, draw 26%, Locarno 30%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Mendrisio v LocarnoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mendrisio win44%

Draw26%

Locarno win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:30

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mendrisio

Locarno

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Erste Liga Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · Erste Liga Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Locarno	10	−1	10
15	Mendrisio	10	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mendrisio winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Mendrisio a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mendrisio v Locarno~~1.44 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 10~~15 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mendrisio win	44%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Locarno win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Mendrisio or draw	70%	–	–
Mendrisio clean sheet	33%	–	–
Locarno clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.0 8.5 4.9 1 10.9 12.4 6.9 2.7 2 7.9 8.7 4.9 3 3.8 4.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mendrisio down, Locarno across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,222 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Mendrisio at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Locarno away: 1.25 scored, 1.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Mendrisio, 1.13 for Locarno. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

MENDRISIO

WLLDDL2–0 · 3–4 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

LOCARNO

DDLWDW0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St. Gallen II	10	+5	22
2	Tuggen	10	+11	21
3	Taverne	10	+13	20
4	Thalwil	10	+5	16
5	Baden	10	+4	16
6	Kosova	10	+3	16
7	Collina d'Oro	10	−1	15
8	Dietikon	10	0	14
9	Gossau	10	−4	14
10	Eschen / Mauren	10	−3	12
11	Locarno	10	−1	10
12	Freienbach	10	−4	10
13	Wettswil-Bonstetten	10	−3	9
14	Winterthur II	10	−8	9
15	Mendrisio	10	−4	8
16	Widnau	10	−13	6